The Indian rupee fell 9 paise to a historic low of 90.87 against the US dollar in early trade on Tuesday, December 16, pressured by ongoing foreign institutional
investor (FII) outflows and delays in the India-US trade negotiations. However, a softer US dollar and a drop in global crude prices limited further declines in the domestic currency, forex traders noted. At the interbank foreign exchange, the rupee opened at 90.87, down 9 paise from Monday’s close, and fluctuated within a narrow range of 90.77-90.87 during early trading hours. On Monday, the rupee closed at a previous record low of 90.78 against the US dollar, losing 29 paise over the prior session. The persistent uncertainty surrounding the India-US trade deal and steady FII outflows were key factors behind the decline. "The US-India trade deal still seems to be off by a distance with the Commerce Secretary saying the first phase will be signed before the end of the year and news that we are closest to the deal being signed. The uncertainty has clouded the recovery on the USD/INR pair as the rupee opened lower with dollar buying happening every day," said Anil Kumar Bhansali, Head of Treasury and Executive Director, Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP, as per a PTI report. Trade Deficit Narrows, But Pressure Remains Even though India’s trade deficit narrowed to a five-month low of $24.53 billion in November, the rupee struggled to recover. Exports rose 19.37 per cent to $38.13 billion, led by engineering and electronics shipments, while imports fell 1.88 per cent to $62.66 billion due to lower inflows of gold, crude, coal, and coke. Meanwhile, FIIs offloaded equities worth Rs 1,468.32 crore on Monday, intensifying pressure on the domestic currency. Market Sentiment and Inflation Trends Wholesale price inflation stayed negative for the second consecutive month at (-) 0.32 per cent in November, despite rising food prices like pulses and vegetables. For context, WPI-based inflation was (-) 1.21 per cent in October and 2.16 per cent in November 2022. The dollar index, which tracks the greenback against six major currencies, fell 0.03 per cent to 98.27, while Brent crude futures dropped 0.61 per cent to $60.19 per barrel. Domestic equities also faced early losses, with the Sensex down 363.92 points to 84,849.44 and Nifty declining 106.65 points to 25,920.65.
