Goldman Sachs has warned that Brent crude oil prices could stay above $100 per barrel for the rest of 2026 if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for even
one more month. In a fresh note to clients, analysts led by Daan Struyven said the oil market is still highly uncertain despite the announcement of a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. They noted comments from US Vice President JD Vance describing the truce as “fragile.” “The situation remains fluid,” the analysts said. “We continue to see the risks to our price forecast as skewed to the upside.” Goldman’s Scenarios Goldman’s base case assumes that oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz will begin to improve this weekend and gradually return to normal levels within one month. In that scenario, Brent crude is expected to average $82 per barrel in the third quarter and $80 per barrel in the fourth quarter. However, in the bank’s “adverse” scenario — where the reopening of the strait is delayed by one month — Brent is forecast to average above $100 per barrel during the second half of 2026.If the closure lasts even longer and leads to some loss of regional production, prices could spike much higher, with Brent seen averaging $120 per barrel in the third quarter and $115 per barrel in the fourth quarter. Current Market Situation Brent crude was trading near $97 per barrel after falling sharply by 13% on Wednesday following news of the ceasefire. At the height of the crisis, the benchmark had touched a high of $119.50 per barrel.US President Donald Trump has insisted that an agreement to keep the Strait of Hormuz open and safe was reached “a long time ago,” while warning of renewed military action if Iran does not fully comply. Meanwhile, Iran’s Ports and Maritime Organization has announced two “designated safe routes” for vessels around Larak Island near Bandar Abbas. Goldman’s warning highlights how even a relatively short delay in reopening the world’s most important oil chokepoint could have a major impact on global oil prices and the broader economy in the coming months.
