Oil prices remained above the $100-a-barrel mark on Thursday as markets grappled with the possibility of a prolonged disruption to crude supplies from
the Middle East. Brent crude pushed higher after a sharp rally in the previous session, with traders closely monitoring escalating attacks involving Iran, the United States and commercial shipping around the Strait of Hormuz. The latest developments have intensified concerns over the flow of energy supplies through the strategic waterway. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most important oil transit routes, making any sustained disruption a major risk for global crude markets. Brent crude futures rose 0.2 per cent to $101.80 a barrel on Thursday, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was up 0.5 per cent at $96.55 a barrel. The gains followed a strong rally on Wednesday. Brent settled $3.29, or 3.4 per cent, higher at $101.21 a barrel after touching $101.58 during the session. WTI climbed $3.02, or 3.25 per cent, to close at $96.05 a barrel. Both benchmarks finished Wednesday at their highest levels since May 22, highlighting the extent to which geopolitical tensions have been feeding into crude prices. Iran said on Wednesday that it had attacked 10 ships near the Strait of Hormuz after the United States sank five Iranian oil tankers. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has also threatened to intensify its response if additional attacks occur. Why The Strait Of Hormuz Matters The disruption around the Strait of Hormuz has become a central concern for oil traders. Ship traffic through the waterway is still significantly below levels seen before the conflict. The route normally handles approximately one-fifth of global oil and gas supplies. Any prolonged restriction therefore has the potential to tighten international energy markets, particularly if producers and exporters are unable to restore normal shipments quickly. The US Energy Information Administration also raised its forecasts for oil prices this year and next on Wednesday. The agency pointed to declining global inventories at a time when Middle Eastern supply remains under pressure. Analysts See More Upside Risk The latest price increase reflects both physical concerns about crude availability and the additional premium investors are assigning to geopolitical risks. Tim Waterer, chief market analyst at KCM Trade, told Reuters that the latest price moves reflected a combination of physical supply tightness and a geopolitical risk premium. "Right now the risk premium is doing a lot of the heavy lifting," he told Reuters. Waterer expects crude prices to remain elevated while control of the Strait of Hormuz remains disputed and diplomatic negotiations continue to face uncertainty. Market risks are increasingly tilted towards further gains if attacks on shipping expand. Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, said the recent attacks suggested that disruptions to maritime trade could become broader and more severe. Goldman Sachs has mapped out a scenario in which crude prices could rise as high as $120 a barrel if attacks on vessels in the Middle East intensify. A return to normal exports, on the other hand, could pull prices back towards $80 a barrel. Struyven told Bloomberg that shipping risks have become an increasingly important driver for crude prices. How High Could Oil Prices Go? Goldman Sachs sees "meaningful upside to crude oil prices" and expects the impact to extend beyond crude. Struyven said natural gas and refined fuel prices could also rise, with supply disruptions in gas and fuels potentially exceeding those seen in the crude market. The length of the disruption could ultimately determine how much further oil prices climb. JPMorgan estimates that every additional month of disruption could add roughly $7 to $8 a barrel to Brent crude. Under a three-month disruption scenario, JPMorgan expects average monthly Brent prices to reach approximately $114 a barrel.
