The upcoming week is expected to be pivotal for Indian stock markets as several domestic and global triggers line up. The spotlight will first fall on
retail inflation data, scheduled for release on September 12. The figure will provide insight into the pricing trends across the country, gauging demand and supply dynamics in key sectors. In July, retail inflation came in at 1.55 per cent, offering some relief after months of volatility. Market participants will watch closely for any signs of upward pressure, which could impact monetary policy expectations and sectoral performance. US Trade Moves And Economic Releases May Sway Global Sentiment On the global front, new developments in the US trade policy could ripple across emerging markets. According to media reports, US President Donald Trump has signed an executive order allowing tariff exemptions for trade partners with industrial export agreements. From Monday onward, key materials such as nickel, gold, pharmaceutical compounds, and chemicals will be excluded from US tariffs. Additionally, critical economic data, including US inflation and jobless claims, is due next week, potentially influencing global capital flows and risk appetite. Market Recap: Bulls Took Charge Benchmark indices ended the week on a strong footing, with Nifty50 advancing 1.29 per cent to 24,740.45 and Sensex rising 1.14 per cent to 80,718.01. Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, noted, "Optimism around potential GST 2.0 reforms and resilient domestic sentiment drove the rally, aided by robust traction in autos and financials, though selective profit booking emerged amid ambiguity over input tax credit claims. The rupee briefly touched a record low of 88.36/$ on tariff jitters, but timely RBI intervention contained volatility, stabilising market sentiment." Singhania opined that technically, Nifty formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart, reclaiming the 20 and 50 EMAs, signalling trend reversal and strengthening momentum. RSI maintained an upward slope, while MACD sustained a bullish crossover with an expanding histogram, reinforcing positive undertones. Sectorally, Autos and FMCG led gains on demand resilience and policy optimism, while IT and consumer durables witnessed profit taking. "On the commodities front, gold rallied on dovish Fed cues, and crude oil firmed amid easing geopolitical tensions and stronger demand signals. FIIs were net sellers through the week, particularly midsession, unloading equities worth approximately Rs 5,667 crore, while DIIs absorbed supply with steady inflows, providing a crucial domestic cushion, acquiring equities to the tune of Rs 13,444 crore," he added. Stock Market Outlook For The Week "The coming week is set to be crucial for Indian markets, with the recent GST rate cut acting as a potential stimulus that could lift sentiment and trigger sectoral rallies, countering the negative sentiment of tariffs in the near term. While the GST relief may boost near-term optimism and drive momentum in consumption-driven and domestic demand sectors, the longer-term trajectory will ultimately hinge on corporate earnings growth in the upcoming quarters, the deal between India and the US impact on tariffs which will shape sustained market direction. September 10, 2025 – China Inflation Rate (August) is forecasted below zero at (-0.1 per cent) YoY, continuing the disinflationary trend that has characterised China's economy amid weak domestic demand," Singhania said. He further added that the Nifty 50 gained 1.29 per cent this week, sustaining above its 21-week and 55-week EMAs, with strong contributions from metals, consumption, and FMCG sectors. The index now faces a key resistance zone at 24,900–25,000, aligned with this week’s high. A decisive breakout above this range could trigger a move toward 25,250. On the downside, immediate support is seen at 24,550, while 24,300 remains a stronger base, defended over the last two weeks. The overall structure remains positive, and a “buy on dips” approach near support zones continues to be the preferred strategy for positional traders. "Bank Nifty closed the week slightly higher above the 54,000 mark, showing resilience by holding the crucial 53,500 support zone, which indicates a base formation and potential reversal if sustained. On the downside, a breach below 53,500 could invite further weakness toward 53,000. On the upside, strong resistance is placed around 54,700–54,775, aligned with the 21-day EMA; a breakout above this zone may trigger an up-move toward 55,300. With risk-to-reward dynamics favouring long positions near support, a “buy on dips” approach remains advisable, provided the index holds above 53,500 on a closing basis," Singhania noted.
