AAP's Gujarat Rise Challenges BJP, Congress

• AAP overtakes Congress in Gujarat survey.
• AAP gains 24.8% vote share, Congress 17.3%.
• BJP leads with 49.5% vote share in Gujarat.

A quiet but significant shift is underway in Gujarat’s politics, it seems. The state, which has been long dominated by the Bharatiya Janata Party, is now

witnessing a new opposition battle — not BJP vs Congress, but BJP vs the Aam Aadmi Party, at least a latest survey says so. AAP’s vote share has risen to 24.8 per cent, overtaking the Congress, which has slipped to 17.3%, according to the Pulse of Gujarat 2026 survey by WeePreside and CIF. If this translates to votes, AAP will become the second-largest political party in the traditionally saffron-dominated state; the BJP, however, still continues to lead with 49.5 per cent vote share.

So what changed since 2022?

According to the survey, a clear trend is there:

• In 2017, Congress had close to 40% vote share.
• By 2022, that fell to around 27%.
• In 2026, it has dropped further to 17.3%.

While the Congress has lost its ground in the latest survey, AAP, on the other hand, contested Gujarat for the first time in 2022 and secured about 13% of the vote, and in the span of just three years, its base has nearly doubled, suggesting that a large chunk of Congress’s traditional voters are shifting to AAP.

Please note - the current trends are based on the latest survey.

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Where is AAP gaining ground?

The Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party is spreading its base in certain pockets, which are known as either Congress strongholds or BJP forts; regional data strengthens this picture:

In Saurashtra–Kutch: Traditionally a BJP stronghold, but AAP’s rise seems to have put the BJP on alert.

In urban and metro areas, AAP is outperforming Congress by a wide margin.

In North and Central Gujarat, the BJP still holds an edge, but the AAP is emerging as the main challenger.

In cities, AAP is no longer seen as a backup option — it is increasingly viewed as a direct alternative.

So what has led to a possible surge for AAP?

It seems that after three years of the incumbent government, voters are concerned about unemployment, inflation, and frequent cabinet changes. AAP is possibly emerging as the primary outlet for anti-incumbency sentiment, if we go by the survey results.

At a recent Ahmedabad convention, Arvind Kejriwal asserted that his party will lead a change of government in 2027. Data-backed long shot?
Though the BJP is still the top choice in Gujarat, going by this survey, it seems the state has a new political contest, and Congress has lost the the chair of challenger. That space is now being occupied by a fast-rising AAP.

With the 2027 Gujarat Assembly elections approaching, the battle lines are being redrawn — and Gujarat politics is increasingly looking like a two-corner fight, with Congress fading into the background.