The World Trade Organization (WTO) has forecast a milder slowdown in global merchandise trade for 2025, driven in part by American companies accelerating
imports ahead of new tariff hikes. In its latest report, the Geneva-based trade body said global goods trade will grow by 0.9% in 2025, a marked improvement from its April projection of a 0.2% decline. The upward revision comes after a 2.9% rise in 2024, with importers rushing to secure products, raw materials, and components before the majority of President Donald Trump’s higher levies come into effect. However, the WTO cautioned that the overall recovery will be slower than previously expected, with growth in 2026 now forecast at 1.8% , below the 2.5% rebound estimated four months ago. “The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment, and supply chains,” said WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala. She warned that any escalation into a cycle of tit-for-tat trade retaliation could inflict serious damage on the global economy. The Trump administration’s “reciprocal tariffs” strategy , targeting nations that allegedly breach WTO principles , has already disrupted long-standing trade arrangements. US trade officials claim the policy has yielded faster foreign market access than years of negotiations under the current 30-year-old WTO framework. As trade tensions continue, analysts say businesses may see short-term benefits from front-loading shipments, but the uncertainty could undermine investment and supply chain stability in the longer term.
