While the Middle East conflict has largely been viewed through the lens of oil and gas disruptions, its impact on India extends far beyond energy, exposing
vulnerabilities across multiple sectors, from gold and diamonds to fertilisers and aviation. India remains heavily dependent on the region not just for crude oil and LNG routed through the Strait of Hormuz, but also for a significant share of non-energy imports. In 2024, around 10% of India’s non-energy imports originated from the Middle East, highlighting the region’s broader role in global trade, said a TOI report. Certain sectors face particularly high exposure. Nearly 47.5% of India’s diamond imports, 63% of fertilisers, 50% of polymers, and 48% of hydrocarbons come from the region. This dependence raises risks of supply disruptions and price shocks if the conflict persists. The impact is also two-sided. India imports raw materials such as gold, diamonds, and precious metals from the Middle East, processes them domestically, and re-exports finished products. Any disruption in imports could therefore also hit export activity, especially in jewellery. Also Read: Stranded Outside UAE Amid War? Here’s What Labour Law Says on Salary However, some sectors may find relief through diversification. Aircraft components and fertilisers, for instance, can be sourced from alternative suppliers such as Germany, France, Russia, and China, provided these countries can scale up supply. Fertilisers remain a key area of concern. With high dependence on Middle Eastern nitrogen-based supplies, prolonged disruption could drive up global prices and force the government to increase subsidies—similar to the response seen during the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Despite these risks, analysts note that India’s macroeconomic position remains relatively strong, offering some cushion against external shocks. Measures such as diversifying import sources and redirecting domestic production toward local consumption could help mitigate the impact. In essence, while oil dominates the headlines, the ripple effects of the Middle East conflict are far wider—touching critical supply chains that underpin India’s trade, agriculture, and manufacturing sectors.
