Throughout history, major empires and superpowers have followed recurring patterns of economic decline, often culminating in collapse. This framework,
popularized in analyses of Spain, Britain, and the Soviet Union, identifies seven stages driven by overextension, financial mismanagement, and societal shifts. The theory of the seven stages of empire was developed by British Army officer Lieutenant-General Sir John Bagot Glubb, known as Glubb Pasha. A World War I veteran and longtime commander of Jordan’s Arab Legion, Glubb later became a historian and author after retiring in 1956. In 1976, he published his influential essay “The Fate of Empires and Search for Survival,” based on his study of more than a dozen empires over 3,000 years, from the Assyrians to the British Empire. Glubb observed that most empires tend to last around 250 years and pass through seven recurring stages: pioneers, conquest, commerce, affluence, intellect, decadence, and decline. He argued that despite cultural and technological differences, empires follow similar moral and social patterns—shifting from duty and discipline to materialism, fragmentation, and loss of cohesion. While not presented as strict destiny, Glubb’s framework was meant as a warning, and it continues to shape modern debates on imperial rise and decline, including discussions about the United States. Drawing from verified historical data and current US economic indicators as of January 2026, this article examines these stages, their manifestations in past empires, and why the US may be progressing through them faster than anticipated. While predictions of imminent collapse remain debated—many economists note that similar warnings have proven false in the past—the data highlight vulnerabilities that could accelerate risks if unaddressed. Stage 1: Military Overextension Empires often begin their decline by spreading resources too thinly across global commitments. Historical examples abound. Spain in the 16th century maintained armies on four continents, with military spending consuming half its revenue. Britain’s empire in 1900 spanned six continents, leading to unsustainable costs during World War I, where it spent $40 billion (equivalent to $1 trillion today). The Soviet Union allocated 15–20% of GDP to defense, supporting conflicts from Afghanistan to Africa. For the US , military spending reached $900.6 billion in fiscal year 2026, exceeding the combined budgets of the next 10 countries. With over 750 bases in 80 countries and troops in 150 nations, the US faces challenges in sustaining commitments amid aging equipment and recruitment shortfalls. Critics argue this mirrors past overreach, potentially straining resources sooner due to simultaneous threats from China, Russia, and Iran. Stage 2: Currency Debasement To fund deficits, empires debase their currency, eroding its value. Spain mixed copper into silver coins, reducing purity from 100% to near zero by 1600, causing inflation. Britain abandoned the gold standard in 1931, devaluing the pound by 25%. The Soviet ruble lacked international convertibility, forcing reliance on gold and oil sales. The US ended the gold standard in 1971, making the dollar fiat-based. Since then, it has lost 98% of its purchasing power. Money supply has grown roughly 400% since 2000, with nearly $6 trillion printed post-2020. This modern debasement via quantitative easing could hasten inflation risks, especially under current fiscal trends. Stage 3: Debt Spiral Unchecked borrowing leads to defaults or unsustainable interest payments. Spain declared bankruptcy four times between 1557 and 1596. Britain amassed $30 billion in debt by 1945, exceeding GDP. The USSR’s economic stagnation in the 1980s depleted reserves. US national debt stands at $38.62 trillion as of January 18, 2026, with a debt-to-GDP ratio of 123.6%. Interest payments are approaching $1 trillion annually, surpassing defense spending. The 2025 deficit was $1.74 trillion (5.9% of GDP), with projections rising to 6.1% by 2035. This spiral could accelerate if borrowing costs rise amid global shifts. Stage 4: Loss of Productive Capacity Wealth influxes often lead to deindustrialization. Spain’s gold imports destroyed domestic manufacturing, making it reliant on foreign goods. Britain’s post–World War II offshoring weakened its industrial base. The USSR’s central planning caused inefficiencies, leading to grain imports. US manufacturing jobs fell by 49,000 from February to September 2025, totaling 70,000 losses since April and reaching 12.69 million—the lowest level since March 2022. The trade deficit grew 14% ($95.2 billion) in the first nine months of 2025 compared with 2024, with manufactured goods deficits up $131.3 billion. Dependence on imports for medicine and electronics persists, echoing historical patterns. Stage 5: Social Decay Economic strain manifests in societal breakdowns. Spain experienced rising crime and emigration. Britain’s post-empire period was marked by inequality. The USSR faced disillusionment and brain drain. In the US , homelessness rose 18% to 771,480 in 2024, with first-time cases up 23% since 2019. Drug overdoses fell 21% to about 73,000 in the year ending August 2025 but remain historically high. Fertility rates are projected to decline, with population growth slowing amid rising deaths from overdoses and suicides. Institutional trust is at all-time lows, with crime increasing in some regions. Stage 6: Loss of Reserve Currency Status Allies begin diversifying away from the dominant currency. Spain’s real lost global acceptance. The British pound fell from $4.03 in 1940 to $1.27 today. The ruble never achieved reserve status. Dedollarization is accelerating. BRICS nations are developing alternatives, with central banks buying record amounts of gold annually since 2022. China’s yuan usage in trade is rising, and Saudi Arabia has accepted non-dollar payments. The dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen to a two-decade low. This trend could amplify US vulnerabilities. Stage 7: Total Collapse Sudden crises often trigger final breakdown. Spain became a secondary power by 1700. Britain lost its empire within 20 years after 1945. The USSR dissolved in 1991 after roughly 900 days of acute crisis. The US is arguably in Stage 5, with warnings of Stage 6. Acceleration factors include rapid debt growth, advancing dedollarization, and mounting social strains. Projections show debt nearing 118% of GDP by 2035. However, counterarguments highlight resilience: past collapse predictions failed, and economic growth continues at roughly 1.8–1.9% annually. Innovation and policy shifts could mitigate risks, but vigilance is warranted. The Decline of the Spanish Empire The Spanish Empire reached its zenith in the 16th century under rulers like Charles V and Philip II, controlling territories across Europe, the Americas, Africa, and Asia. At its peak around 1580, it dominated global gold and silver production, with the Spanish real serving as a reserve currency. By the late 17th century, Spain had declined into a financially exhausted, second-rate power. The fall was gradual, driven by economic mismanagement, military overextension, internal rebellions, and structural inefficiencies. Spain fought continuous wars, including the Eighty Years’ War against Dutch rebels and conflicts with France, England, and the Ottoman Empire. By 1580, armies were deployed across four continents, consuming more than half of state revenue. Military defeats and prolonged conflicts drained resources and exposed vulnerabilities. Silver inflows caused severe inflation, while coin debasement eroded trust. Bankruptcy followed repeatedly, and domestic industry collapsed as imports replaced local production. The expulsion of Jews and Moriscos depleted skilled labor. Weak leadership and corruption sealed Spain’s decline, leaving an empire vast in appearance but hollow in substance. The Decline of the British Empire At its peak, the British Empire covered 25% of the world’s land and population, with the pound sterling as the global reserve currency. Decline accelerated after World War I and became irreversible after World War II. Military overextension, war debts, industrial erosion, and rising nationalism in colonies undermined imperial control. Britain exited World War II effectively bankrupt, with debt exceeding GDP. Currency devaluation, loss of colonies such as India, and geopolitical setbacks like the Suez Crisis confirmed Britain’s diminished status. By the late 20th century, the empire had dissolved into the Commonwealth, marking the end of Britain’s imperial era. The Decline and Collapse of the Soviet Union The Soviet Union emerged from World War II as a superpower but collapsed abruptly in 1991. Heavy military spending, economic stagnation, inefficiencies of central planning, and declining oil revenues weakened the system. Gorbachev’s reforms exposed systemic failures, loosened political control, and triggered independence movements across Eastern Europe and within the USSR itself. Ethnic tensions, corruption, institutional decay, and failed leadership culminated in dissolution without a major war.
Where The US Stands?
The United States, as the world's leading superpower since the mid-20th century, exhibits many hallmarks of the late-stage economic and imperial decline patterns seen in Spain, Britain, and the Soviet Union. While the US retains significant advantages—technological innovation, a flexible economy, deep capital markets, and military superiority—the data as of January 2026 reveal accelerating vulnerabilities across all seven stages.
These trends raise concerns that decline could occur sooner than historical precedents suggest due to the scale of modern global interdependence, rapid debt accumulation, and emerging geopolitical shifts.
Stage 1: Military Overextension
Military overextension persists, with the US maintaining the world's largest defense budget. The Department of Defense's fiscal year 2026 budget request stands at approximately $892.6 billion—near-flat from prior years but still exceeding the combined spending of the next several major powers.
Commitments span over 750 bases in more than 80 countries, NATO obligations in Europe, alliances in Asia (including Japan, South Korea, and the Philippines), and ongoing deterrence against China, Russia, and Iran. Recruitment challenges, aging equipment, and potential multi-front scenarios—such as Taiwan, Ukraine-related escalation, and Middle East conflicts—continue to strain resources.
These pressures mirror the unsustainable military burdens that exhausted prior empires.
Stage 2: Currency Debasement
Currency debasement continues through fiat mechanisms. Since ending the gold standard in 1971, the dollar has lost approximately 98% of its purchasing power.
Massive monetary expansion—particularly after 2020—has contributed to persistent inflationary pressures, even if partially moderated in recent periods. This dynamic echoes Spain’s coin debasement and Britain’s post-war struggles with currency stability, though on a far larger scale given the dollar’s global reserve role.
Stage 3: Debt Spiral
The debt spiral has reached unprecedented levels. As of January 7, 2026, total gross national debt stands at $38.43 trillion, up $2.25 trillion year-over-year—averaging roughly $8.03 billion per day.
This equates to about 120% of GDP, with interest payments approaching or exceeding $1 trillion annually, in some projections surpassing defense outlays. The fiscal year 2026 deficit trajectory shows borrowing of $602 billion in just the first three months.
Unlike Spain’s repeated sovereign bankruptcies or Britain’s post-war debt crisis, the US benefits from dollar reserve status, allowing sustained borrowing. However, rising interest rates and fiscal dominance risks—where monetary policy increasingly serves debt servicing—could trigger a tipping point faster than in past cases.
Stage 4: Loss of Productive Capacity
Loss of productive capacity is evident in ongoing deindustrialization trends. Manufacturing employment fell sharply in 2025, declining for eight consecutive months through December and reaching roughly 12.692 million—the lowest level in recent years.
The sector shed tens of thousands of jobs amid tariffs, supply chain shifts, and global competition, despite policy efforts aimed at reshoring. While the goods and services trade deficit narrowed somewhat in late 2025, chronic imbalances persist.
Heavy reliance on imports for electronics, pharmaceuticals, and critical components parallels Spain’s historical import dependence and Britain’s erosion of its industrial edge.
Stage 5: Social Decay
Social decay manifests across multiple indicators. Homelessness reached record highs, with more than 771,000 people affected in 2024, driven by housing costs and widening inequality.
Drug overdoses remain elevated despite recent declines, contributing to excess mortality. Fertility rates continue trending downward, with population growth increasingly reliant on immigration and natural decline possible by 2030 under current projections.
Trust in institutions is at historic lows amid political polarization, crime concerns in urban areas, and emigration of skilled talent in certain sectors. These dynamics echo the social fragmentation seen in previous empires under economic stress.
Stage 6: Loss of Reserve Currency Status
Loss of reserve currency status shows early but accelerating signs. Central banks have increased gold purchases, non-traditional currencies—such as the yuan—are gaining traction in trade settlements, and BRICS nations are advancing alternative systems.
The dollar’s share of global reserves has gradually declined over two decades, hovering around 57–60%, though it still dominates foreign exchange turnover and global invoicing. Shifts by partners such as Saudi Arabia toward non-dollar oil transactions and coordinated efforts by China, Russia, and India to bypass dollar-based systems indicate growing momentum.
These developments threaten the “exorbitant privilege” that has long financed US deficits.
Stage 7: Total Collapse
Total collapse remains prospective rather than imminent, but the convergence of these factors—combined with potential external shocks such as major geopolitical conflict, sharp interest rate spikes, or accelerated dedollarization—could precipitate rapid unraveling.
Historical collapses varied widely in speed: Spain’s unfolded over decades, Britain’s post–World War II decline took roughly 20 years, and the Soviet Union collapsed within a few years. The US ’s deeply interconnected global role means any crisis—such as a debt ceiling impasse, major default scare, or reserve flight—could cascade more rapidly due to financial market scale and dependence on foreign funding.
While resilience factors such as innovation and policy flexibility remain, the arithmetic of compounding debt, eroding productive capacity, and shifting alliances suggests the window for course correction is narrowing, potentially leading to significant economic reconfiguration sooner than many anticipate.
