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LAGOS, Nigeria (AP) — Adegbola Isaac, a taxi driver in Lagos, experienced significant financial strain over the weekend as fuel prices surged to 1,350
naira ($0.99) per liter, reflecting a nearly 35% increase since the onset of the Iran war. This spike has severely diminished his daily profits. Isaac is among millions in Africa grappling with the economic fallout from the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which escalated on February 28 following U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has exacerbated existing hardships for those in some of the world’s poorest households.
Impact of Global Conflicts
The recent fuel price increases are not isolated incidents but rather part of a broader pattern affecting Africa, a continent already reeling from the consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. As the fastest-growing region globally, Africa finds itself vulnerable to external shocks, particularly due to its reliance on imported resources such as fuel and fertilizer.Many African nations are net importers of refined oil products, leading to immediate consequences, including rising retail fuel prices and increased costs for various goods and services. Experts indicate that African economies are intricately linked to global markets, making them susceptible to shifts driven by larger economies.
Regional Supply Chain Challenges
The United Nations recently announced efforts to facilitate the safe transit of fertilizer through the Strait of Hormuz, aiming to bolster diplomatic negotiations surrounding the Iran conflict. According to a 2025 report by U.N. Trade and Development, Africa stands as the epicenter of multiple global crises, with over half of its trade tied to just five non-African countries.Kenya, for instance, relies entirely on fuel imports from the Middle East, primarily the United Arab Emirates, and is already witnessing disruptions, with 20% of its fuel retailers affected. Similarly, Uganda's fuel reserves are projected to last only a few weeks, while South Africa and Nigeria also face significant supply challenges due to their dependence on external sources.
Economic Adjustments and Protests
In Zimbabwe, rising living costs have prompted health workers to demand wage increases, leading the government to consider increasing ethanol blending in fuel from 5% to 20%. This decision raises concerns regarding vehicle safety and environmental pollution.Washington Nyakarize, a cellphone trader in Harare, expressed frustration over the rising fares, stating, 'I now avoid going into town during peak hours because the fares are too high.' He noted that while traveling later may reduce costs, it also results in lost business opportunities.
Future Implications of the Conflict
Access to fertilizer in conflict-affected regions like Sudan and Somalia is expected to decline, with UNCTAD reporting potential negative impacts. Kenya's flower industry has already incurred losses of up to $1.4 million weekly since the conflict escalated, attributed to decreased demand and shipping issues.Experts warn that if the conflict continues, Africa may enter uncharted economic territory. Zainab Usman, a senior research scholar, remarked, 'If the conflict persists for another month or two, honestly, we’re going to be in unknown terrain, that no one else can really predict.'
Exploring Alternative Supply Sources
As the global oil supply tightens, African governments are actively seeking alternative fuel sources. Reports indicate that countries such as South Africa, Kenya, and Ghana are negotiating with Nigeria's Dangote Refinery for fuel agreements.Despite its regular exports of jet fuel to international markets, the Dangote refinery recently announced the successful sale of 12 shipments of refined petroleum products to several African nations, marking a significant achievement since reaching full operational capacity earlier this year. However, experts caution that any delays in expansion or disruptions to crude oil supply may hinder its ability to meet growing demands.
Olufola Wusu, an oil and gas expert, stated, 'As long as there is a steady supply of crude oil, the refinery has the capacity to meet some of the needs from across the continent.'
