Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to agree to peace talks aimed at ending the Ukraine war anytime soon, former Russian prime minister Mikhail
Kasyanov has said, arguing that the Kremlin chief remains convinced that he can prevail despite mounting pressure at home and abroad. Kasyanov, who served as prime minister from 2000 to 2004, told AFP that Putin's decision to invade Ukraine in 2022 had been based on flawed assessments from Russia's security establishment. But even after the war's prolonged course, Kasyanov said Putin appeared unwilling to acknowledge the failure of those calculations. “He made a mistake that he cannot bring himself to admit,” Kasyanov, 68, told the news outlet in Paris. “He believed the reports from his security services that Ukraine was weak.” According to Kasyanov, there is little indication that Putin is preparing to make concessions. He said the Russian president's position had been reinforced by stronger oil prices following the US-Iran conflict and by differences between Washington and European capitals over how Moscow should be dealt with. “Putin is, of course, rubbing his hands with glee,” Kasyanov said. “He clearly believes he can continue the war without making any concessions. And he is convinced that he is winning a war of attrition against Ukraine.” The former prime minister also expressed concern about Ukraine's ability to withstand the conflict through the coming winter. He called for Western governments to remain united, increase pressure on Moscow and speed up deliveries of Patriot missile interceptors to Kyiv. Kasyanov's assessment of the situation inside Russia was markedly different from Putin's repeated claims of broad public support for the war. While the Russian president has pointed to the ruling party's record supermajority in last month's elections, critics have questioned the conduct of the vote. Kasyanov, who left Russia after the invasion and now lives in exile in Riga, said his contacts with people within the Russian establishment suggested that support for continuing the conflict was far less solid than it appeared publicly. “Fear reigns there -- I am talking about the ruling class,” he was quoted saying. “Everyone wants the war to end. An overwhelming majority does", he told AFP. The former prime minister said the disagreement inside the elite was primarily about what an end to the war should look like. Some, he said, still wanted victory, while others wanted Putin defeated. There were also those who simply wanted the fighting to stop. For the wider Russian population, however, Kasyanov does not expect an immediate uprising. Despite casualties and the impact of rising prices, he said there was little evidence of conditions that could produce a revolt. “There are no grounds for a revolt,” Kasyanov said, adding that Russians had become accustomed to economic hardship. “Russians have lived with high inflation for the past 30 years,” he said. “They have grown accustomed to putting up with it.” A fresh mobilisation could change that calculation, however. Kasyanov warned that another major call-up of Russian troops could become a trigger for protests. The former prime minister, who moved into opposition after Putin dismissed him, described the country's political system in stark terms, calling Russia “practically totalitarian”. He said the atmosphere was marked by “a sense of fatalism, hostility toward one another, and serious tension in society”. Kasyanov also sought to play down fears surrounding Putin's recent threat to use “all types of weapons” if Russia's Kaliningrad region were attacked. Rather than viewing such warnings as evidence of overwhelming Russian strength, he argued that Western governments were giving Putin too much leverage by allowing themselves to be intimidated. “The West's and Europeans' biggest mistake is that they are too afraid of Putin. He is not as strong as he appears,” he said. “Putin fears the nuclear button more than many Europeans do.” Kasyanov further argued that Moscow was not preparing for a direct military confrontation with Europe. In his assessment, Putin's objective is less about launching a wider war and more about forcing European powers to recognise Russia's influence and status. “What Putin wants is respect. He wants to force all of Europe to give it to him,” he said.
