US intelligence assessments reportedly warn that Russian President Vladimir Putin could test NATO’s resolve with an attack on a member state as early as this
autumn, potentially involving anything from a cyberattack to a limited military incursion. According to reports cited by the Wall Street Journal, the assessment places the possible timeframe between this fall and 2029. US officials believe Moscow could seek to exploit divisions within the 77-year-old alliance and test whether Washington would respond decisively to an attack on a NATO ally. Russia Could Use Limited Attack To Test Alliance The potential threat could range from cyber operations and other forms of hybrid warfare to a direct military incursion, including a possible ground invasion, according to the assessment. Analysts say Moscow could use a limited operation to gauge the strength of NATO's collective defence commitment. Heather Conley, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said Russia has long sought to challenge NATO's credibility and weaken the relationship between the US and its European allies. Ukraine War And NATO Tensions The warning comes as Russia remains engaged in its war against Ukraine and faces growing pressure from Ukrainian drone attacks targeting its military and energy infrastructure. Russian forces have also suffered significant casualties and made slower progress on parts of the battlefield. Moscow has previously been accused of testing NATO's defences, including incidents involving Russian missiles and drones entering or striking the territory of alliance members such as Poland and Romania. US Weapons Stockpiles Raise Concern The intelligence warning also comes as US officials face concerns over depleted ammunition reserves after Washington supplied large quantities of weapons to Ukraine and conducted military operations elsewhere. Officials cited by the Wall Street Journal said stockpiles of weapons including Precision Strike Missiles, Army Tactical Missile Systems and Stinger air-defence missiles have come under pressure. The situation has raised questions about whether the US would have sufficient supplies to respond quickly to a major confrontation with Russia or China while continuing to support existing military commitments.
