The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive early this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting its onset over parts of the south Bay
of Bengal, Andaman Sea, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands by the end of this week. This would mark an arrival five to six days ahead of its usual onset date of May 22, driven by favourable atmospheric conditions, including a low-pressure area currently active over the southwest Bay of Bengal. According to the IMD's daily weather update, the low-pressure area was observed at 8:30 AM IST on May 12, 2026, with an associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5 km above mean sea level. The IMD indicated that this low-pressure system is expected to intensify in the next 48 hours, further supporting the monsoon's arrival. "The low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal lay over the same region at 8.30 am today, the 12th May 2026, with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5km above mean sea level. It is likely to become more marked during the next 48 hours," the IMD stated in its daily forecast.
When Does Monsoon Normally Arrive?
Typically, the monsoon hits the Andaman and Nicobar around May 20, and it subsequently advances further west toward mainland India. Kerala usually sees the onset of the monsoon on June 1, which marks the beginning of the southwest monsoon season (June to September).
Below Rainfall in India - Is El Nino Behind It?
Earlier, the IMD had said that India might witness below-normal rainfall this year during the monsoon season. The country is likely to receive 80 cm of rainfall, while the long-period average (1971-2020) of seasonal rainfall over India is 87 cm, PTI news agency reported.
According to the IMD, it could be due to the emergence of the El Nino conditions, which cause less rainfall in the country. In its monthly forecast on May 1, the department had said that El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific were evolving toward El Nino conditions.
