Trump’s push to ease fuel-price pressures through a deal with Russia is facing a major test, with Brent crude surging to $117.45 a barrel as escalating
attacks across the Middle East intensify fears of a deeper energy crisis. The international oil benchmark briefly climbed to $117.45 during trading on Friday, October 23, before settling at $116.72 a barrel, according to Reuters. The closing price was its highest since April 29, while Brent gained around 6 per cent over the week. US West Texas Intermediate crude also rose sharply, settling at $103.27 a barrel. The rally comes despite the US President's announcement earlier this month that Russia would resume diesel exports to the United States and global markets in an effort to bring down fuel costs ahead of the November 3 US midterm elections. However, the first Russian diesel shipment bound for New York is carrying approximately 40,000 metric tonnes of fuel and is not expected to arrive until November 7 — four days after Americans vote.
Middle East Conflict Drives Oil Prices Higher
The immediate pressure on oil prices is coming from fears that the US-Israeli war against Iran could escalate further, putting energy infrastructure and critical maritime routes at greater risk. Trump fuelled those concerns on Friday by suggesting that Washington could launch another round of military operations against Iran. Speaking at a rally in Florida, he said the United States might conduct another “little Epic Fury”, referring to the military campaign’s name.
Meanwhile, Iran has reportedly intensified attacks on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian state television reported that seven oil tankers had been struck or hit naval mines, further raising concerns over the security of a critical route for global energy shipments.
The Houthis, an Iran-aligned armed group based in Yemen, have also stepped up attacks on Saudi Arabia. Reuters reported that Saudi Aramco ordered the evacuation of its headquarters in Dhahran on Thursday as fighting intensified. The United Arab Emirates separately reported an oil spill off Umm Al Quwain, although the cause and the tanker involved had not been identified.
Why Trump’s Russian Diesel Deal May Not Be Enough
Trump announced the Russian diesel arrangement on October 9 as part of his efforts to contain rising fuel prices before the midterms. Under the announced plan, Russia would initially export 300,000 metric tonnes of diesel, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November and another one million tonnes thereafter.
The Kremlin confirmed on Friday that the first tanker had departed. Shipping data cited by Reuters identified the vessel as the Malta-flagged Agioi Fanendes, which loaded around 40,000 metric tonnes of ultra-low-sulphur diesel at Russia’s Baltic port of Primorsk.
The cargo is significant as the first Russian diesel shipment bound for the United States since the countries reached the agreement. But its immediate impact on the domestic market is likely to be limited: the shipment is relatively small, and its expected arrival falls after election day.
More importantly, diesel imports cannot directly resolve the broader crude-oil supply risks driving Brent higher. The price of crude reflects expectations about global availability, shipping security and the likelihood of further conflict, not simply the arrival of an individual fuel cargo.
The supply picture is also being strained elsewhere. Libya’s National Oil Corporation said a pipeline valve connecting the Hamada and Tahara oilfields to Zawiya port had been shut, reducing production at both fields. The US Department of Energy has separately authorised an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to address a supply disruption affecting Phillips 66’s Lake Charles refinery in Louisiana.
