New Delhi: Gold prices are expected to surge to USD 3,600 per ounce in the international market by December, fuelled by global economic uncertainties,
geopolitical tensions, and strong investment demand, according to Ventura Securities. In its latest outlook, the brokerage projected that Comex gold futures could test the USD 3,600 mark by year-end, after hitting a record high of USD 3,534.10 on August 7. Domestically, gold too is on a record-breaking spree, with the October contract on the Multi Commodity Exchange scaling a lifetime high of Rs 1,02,250 per 10 grams on August 8. "Gold retains upside potential with pronounced volatility, supported by weaker US growth, sustained pressure on the US dollar index, trade frictions and heightened geopolitical risks," the stock broking firm said.
ETFs, Digital Gold Fuel Demand Surge
Global demand continues to drive gold’s rally. In the second quarter of 2025, gold demand rose 3% year-on-year to 1,249 tonnes, valued at USD 132 billion, a sharp 45% jump in value terms.
Investment inflows through exchange traded funds (ETFs) have been particularly strong. Global gold ETF holdings climbed 16% to 3,616 tonnes as of June 30, while assets under management (AUM) surged 64% year-on-year to USD 383 billion, Ventura Securities said.
India mirrored this trend, with domestic gold ETFs recording a 42% increase in holdings to 66.68 tonnes by June 30. Their AUM nearly doubled to Rs 64,777 crore, while the number of investor accounts rose 41% to 76.54 lakh, marking a 317% growth over the past four years.
Ventura also highlighted a behavioural shift among investors, with younger generations preferring digital avenues such as ETFs, fractional ownership, and online gold platforms. Physical jewellery demand remains steady, but hybrid models combining offline and digital channels are rapidly gaining traction.
"Over the past 20 years, gold has delivered positive annual returns in 14 calendar years, reinforcing its status as a proven store of value and a hedge against inflation.
"Recent performance underscores its resilience, with average annual returns of 23 per cent over the last three years compared to 11 per cent for the Nifty 50 index," the brokerage firm said.
In its outlook, Ventura Securities noted that central banks remain consistent buyers of gold. With the Reserve Bank of India halting fresh issuances of Sovereign Gold Bonds since February 2024, analysts anticipate ETFs and other digital instruments will capture a larger share of investment demand.
According to NS Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities at Ventura, "With inflationary pressures, a softening US dollar, and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, we see sustained upside potential in gold prices through the remainder of 2025.
"...indicates Comex gold could test the USD 3,600 mark by year-end, supported by strong ETF inflows, steady central bank buying, and robust retail participation in India's gold investment market," Ramaswamy added.
