India is set to continue its import of the crude oil from Russia if the supply chain disruption continues, and it might reach new heights. As per an analysis
by Kpler, India’s crude oil imports from Russia may even touch a new record high of 3 million barrels per day if the shipment disruptions through Strait of Hormuz and even Red Sea continue. If shipping through the Red Sea remains unaffected, Indian refiners will continue to have an important supply cushion through Saudi Arabia's East-West (Yanbu) pipeline, which has recently been supplying around 300,000-500,000 barrels per day (kbd) of crude, Kpler analysis said. However, if the security situation worsens and Red Sea supplies are disrupted during August, refiners will have to replace those volumes with crude sourced from elsewhere, it added. Kpler said that India’s reliance on Russian crude oil remains very high. “Russian crude remains India's strongest supply hedge, and imports could potentially rise toward or even above 3.0 mbd if market conditions and Russian export availability permit,” Sumit Ritolia, Lead analyst, Modelling and Refining at Kpler has said. “The most likely replacement remains Russian crude. Over the past few months, India's Russian crude imports have increased sharply from around 1.0 mbd to approximately 2.6 mbd, with July imports also tracking near record highs,” says Sumit Ritolia. In the recent past, specially after the Iran War disrupting the Strait of Hormuz, the key supply route, India's crude sourcing has become significantly more diversified. The country has up its imports from Russia, Venezuela, Africa and suppliers in the Atlantic Basin. This broader import basket provides greater flexibility and lowers the risk of any major supply disruption. Ritolia said the July imports are running at around 2.6 mbd, accounting for roughly 55% of total crude imports. This has fundamentally shifted India's energy security priorities. While the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea remain strategically important, the uninterrupted operation of Russian export infrastructure—particularly Black Sea terminals such as Novorossiysk—has become equally, if not more, critical for India's crude supply. For India, Saudi Arabia also continues to be a key supplier. However, its crude exports to India have averaged only about 400,000 barrels per day (kbd) in recent months, far below the volumes imported from Russia.
