Shares of Reliance Industries have taken a massive hit, falling nearly 6 per cent over two trading sessions. This steep decline has erased more than Rs
1 lakh crore from the company’s market capitalisation, bringing it below the Rs 18 lakh crore mark. The drop has also weighed on benchmark indices BSE Sensex and Nifty 50. On Monday, the stock slipped over 4 per cent to trade at Rs 1,290.30 per share, marking its lowest level in almost a year. It has emerged as the biggest laggard among index heavyweights, even as the broader market showed only mild weakness during the session. As of close, RIL shares were trading at Rs 1,306.00, down Rs 44.50 or 3.30 per cent on NSE. Market experts believe the stock is currently hovering near critical technical support levels. Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Technical Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, pointed out in an ET report that the stock is close to its 200-week moving average and yearly pivot support near Rs 1,260. “Technical indicators, including RSI, MACD, and DMI, are currently reflecting a bearish undertone, indicating that momentum remains weak in the short term,” he added. However, Patel highlighted that Rs 1,260 has historically been a strong support zone. If the stock manages to hold above this level for the next few sessions, it may see a short-term recovery. “A stable close above this zone may attract fresh buying interest. For now, 1,260 serves as an important support, while 1,360 stands as the immediate resistance to watch,” he added. Bearish Trend Strengthens Amid Weak Setup According to Sachin Gupta, Vice President of Research at Choice Broking, the technical structure has weakened considerably. “The previous uptrend has now transitioned into a pattern of lower highs and lower lows. Additionally, the stock is trading firmly below both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, reinforcing the prevailing bearish momentum,” he said. He attributed part of the decline to the reintroduction of export duties on diesel and ATF. “Although the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is nearing oversold levels, indicating the potential for a near-term bounce, the broader trend remains under pressure. For any recovery to gain traction, the stock would need to move back above the Rs 1,350 mark. Until then, the Rs 1,340 level, which previously acted as support, is expected to act as a significant resistance zone,” he said. Gupta also warned that continued weakness could push the stock towards the Rs 1,250–Rs 1,200 range, where a more durable support base might form. Policy Impact And Performance Trends The recent pressure on the stock coincides with the government’s decision to reintroduce windfall taxes on diesel and ATF exports. This move has implications for Reliance’s refining business, particularly its Jamnagar facilities, which produce a substantial share of India’s air turbine fuel, much of it for export. In terms of performance, the stock has declined over 3 per cent in the past week and about 8 per cent over the last month. Year-to-date in 2026, it is down nearly 18 per cent. Despite this short-term weakness, the longer-term picture remains relatively stable, with gains of around 11 per cent over three years and 31 per cent over five years.
