India’s quick commerce industry is entering a new phase of expansion, with the market expected to surge nearly sevenfold over the next five years, according
to a joint report by Google and Redseer Strategy Consultants. The report estimates that India’s quick commerce market will rise to around $90 billion by FY2031, compared with approximately $13 billion in FY2026. While metro cities are likely to remain a major growth engine, increasing adoption in smaller cities is expected to significantly widen the industry's consumer base. The number of monthly transacting users is projected to cross 100 million nationally by FY2031, signalling a sharp increase in the reach of platforms offering rapid delivery of groceries, household products and other goods. Metro markets are expected to account for nearly 60 per cent of the incremental quick commerce growth through FY2031. The report also sees considerable room for the format to capture a larger portion of consumer spending in these cities. Quick commerce currently represents about 6 per cent of retail spending in metros. This share could climb to between 20 per cent and 23 per cent by FY2031 as consumers increasingly use rapid-delivery platforms for a broader range of purchases. However, the transition from the industry's current scale to a USD 90 billion opportunity could be more complicated than its initial growth phase. “Quick commerce has built its scale around a clear proposition, which is getting a known product to a consumer in minutes. The path to a US$90 billion market is more complex because much of the remaining spend does not behave that way,” said Kushal Bhatnagar, Partner, Redseer Strategy Consultants. Festive Sales Expected To Add Fresh Momentum The industry is also expected to see strong growth during the upcoming festive period. Quick commerce sales are projected to increase 110 per cent year-on-year during the festive season, according to the report. The segment could account for around 18 per cent of total online festive spending, highlighting the growing role of instant-delivery platforms during periods when consumer purchases typically rise. For sustained growth beyond smaller, frequent grocery orders, however, platforms will need to encourage consumers to use quick commerce for larger and more planned household purchases. Non-Grocery Categories Could Hit $27 Billion A major opportunity lies outside traditional grocery purchases. Non-grocery segments including beauty, personal care, home essentials and electronics are expected to expand sharply, with the category estimated to grow from roughly $3 billion in FY2026 to between $21 billion and $27 billion by FY2031. The report noted that simply adding more products may not be enough to win this spending. Platforms and brands will also need to strengthen product discovery, provide greater confidence around authenticity and offer reliable replacement mechanisms. This could become particularly important for higher-value purchases such as electronics, where consumers may demand more information and assurance before placing an order. Karan Dugal, Head of Industry, Quick Commerce & FoodTech, Google India, said, “Quick commerce in India has evolved past a single playbook, with purchase behaviours shifting dramatically across metros and non-metros, and spanning everyday essentials to high-ticket electronics.” Smaller Cities Offer A Massive Growth Opportunity Beyond India’s largest cities, the quick commerce opportunity is also expanding rapidly. The report estimates that more than 200 million online shoppers across over 300 cities could form the addressable market outside metros. Monthly transacting users in non-metro markets are expected to reach between 55 million and 60 million by FY2031. Yet, expansion in these markets is unlikely to follow the exact trajectory seen in major cities. Smaller basket sizes, concerns over product freshness and consumer trust could continue to affect adoption. As a result, quick commerce companies will have to tailor their offerings and operating models to the characteristics of individual markets rather than rely on a uniform strategy. Local Preferences To Shape The Next Growth Cycle The report suggests that the industry's next leg of expansion will depend on its ability to make quick commerce relevant for a much wider range of consumer needs. That means moving beyond small, immediate grocery purchases and encouraging larger planned orders, while simultaneously building scale in non-grocery categories and improving unit economics in smaller cities. For brands, the opportunity will extend beyond simply being available on quick commerce platforms. Product discovery, trust, fulfilment speed and local consumer preferences are expected to become increasingly important as competition intensifies. The report said future expansion will require platforms and brands to adapt their models to local consumer preferences while building trust and connecting online product discovery with faster local fulfilment.
