What is the story about?
Recent outbreaks of hantavirus and norovirus on cruise ships have raised health concerns, but industry experts believe these incidents will not significantly
impact the growing popularity of cruise vacations. Despite these health challenges, a record number of passengers are expected to embark on cruises this year. The Cruise Lines International Association projects that 38.3 million people will travel on ocean-going vessels in 2023, a 4% increase from last year's record of 37.2 million passengers, indicating a robust demand for cruise experiences.
Industry Outlook
Rob Kwortnik, an associate professor at Cornell University's Nolan School of Hotel Administration, remarked on the resilience of cruise consumers, stating that they remain unfazed by negative media coverage surrounding health outbreaks. He noted, 'The cruise consumer seems to be somewhat Teflon when it comes to stories like this.'In mid-April, the Cruise Lines International Association released its annual forecast, which suggests that the demand for cruises continues to thrive despite the recent health incidents. Industry sales data remain confidential, and major cruise companies, including Royal Caribbean, Norwegian, and Carnival, have not commented on the impact of these events on bookings.
Responses from Cruise Operators
Oceanwide Expeditions, the operator of the MV Hondius, which experienced a hantavirus outbreak, stated that it does not anticipate changes to its operations, with a cruise scheduled to depart from Keflavik, Iceland, on May 29.Veteran cruisers expressed confidence in the safety of their travel plans, with one enthusiast, Jenni Fielding, sharing, 'I have eight cruises booked, and I’ll absolutely be booking another. Cruising is as safe as any other type of holiday, provided travelers follow sensible health advice.'
Current Demand Trends
Data from CruiseCompete.com indicates a significant increase in bookings, with a 31.7% rise in cabin reservations during the first half of May compared to the same period last year. CEO Bob Levinstein confirmed, 'I can categorically say that we have not seen any drop in demand.'Levinstein pointed out that norovirus is often associated with cruise ships due to CDC regulations requiring disclosure when 3% or more passengers report symptoms. He emphasized that on a large ship, such an illness often goes unnoticed by most travelers.
Long-term Implications
According to Kwortnik, current events rarely influence passengers' decisions since cruises are typically booked six months to a year in advance. He explained, 'People who are booking cruises tomorrow are thinking about the holidays.'Viking, a Switzerland-based cruise line, noted that demand for its river cruises briefly softened at the beginning of the year due to geopolitical tensions but has since rebounded, with 92% of its 2026 cruises already booked.
Market Resilience
Andrew Coggins, a cruise industry analyst, highlighted that even if travelers are unsettled by recent news, most will not seek refunds for upcoming cruises. He stated, 'If there’s any impact on demand, it would be in the long term.'Coggins noted that the attention surrounding the hantavirus outbreak likely stemmed from its association with the Diamond Princess, which was quarantined during the early COVID-19 pandemic. He added that while the number of cruise passengers from China and Japan remains lower than pre-pandemic levels, demand in other regions is flourishing.
Demographic Appeal
Bank of America's recent survey indicates that cruising appeals to a broad demographic, particularly among Generation Z and millennials, who express strong interest in cruise vacations. Furthermore, cruise lines have adapted to attract lower-income households with shorter and more affordable itineraries.Kwortnik also noted that cruising provides excellent value for money, as it often costs less than staying at a hotel in Miami, including accommodations, meals, entertainment, and transportation.
