Oil prices climbed for a fifth straight session on Friday, as rising tensions in the Middle East and renewed fears over supply disruptions pushed crude
higher. Markets are increasingly pricing in the risk of a wider conflict involving Iran, with analysts now openly discussing scenarios ranging from $110 to as high as $150 per barrel, if the situation persists. Brent crude futures rose $1.23, or 1.17%, to $106.3 a barrel by 0107 GMT, while US West Texas Intermediate gained $1.07, or 1.12%, to $96.92. Both benchmarks had already surged more than 3% in the previous session, rallying nearly $5 a barrel after reports of air defence activity over Tehran and signs of a deepening power struggle within Iran. The latest spike came after Iran released footage showing commandos boarding a cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran also claimed its air defence systems had engaged "hostile targets," heightening concerns about the security of one of the world's most critical oil transit routes. US President Donald Trump added to the market's nervousness, saying Iran may have increased its weapons stockpile "a little bit" during the two-week ceasefire, though he asserted that US forces could eliminate it within a day.
Hormuz Risks Keep Oil Bulls In Control
The confrontation has increasingly shifted to the seas, with both Washington and Tehran seeking leverage through naval posturing. Iran has continued to insist that vessels obtain its permission before transiting the Strait of Hormuz, while Trump has claimed the US has "total control" over the strategic waterway.
Meanwhile, the US Navy has maintained a blockade targeting Iranian ports and vessels. Adding another layer of uncertainty, Israel's defence minister said Jerusalem is awaiting US approval to resume military action against Iran and "complete the elimination of the Khamenei dynasty."
Trump also said Israel and Lebanon had agreed to extend their ceasefire by three weeks following a high-level meeting at the White House.
$110, $130, Even $150: Analysts See Higher Prices Ahead
Analysts believe the current ceasefire may only be a temporary pause. A note from Haitong Futures, cited by Reuters, said the truce increasingly appears to be a staging ground for further escalation. If US-Iran negotiations fail to deliver meaningful progress by the end of April, the brokerage warned, crude could scale fresh highs this year.
Macquarie expects crude to remain supported in the $85-$90 range in the near term, with prices gradually moving toward $110 as supply conditions tighten. The firm also warned that prolonged disruptions could send Brent soaring to $150 per barrel.
Nuvama Institutional Equities echoed those concerns, noting that any extended closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, could drive crude into the $110-$150 range.
For now, traders are betting that geopolitical risks will continue to dominate the oil market, with every fresh headline from the Middle East carrying the potential to send prices sharply higher.
