For millions of Indians, air conditioners are no longer luxury appliances. As heatwaves increase, ACs have become a survival necessity. But India’s rising dependence on air conditioners, can the country’s
electricity grid handle the scale of cooling demand?
A recent study has warned that India could begin facing peak power shortages as early as 2028 unless the energy efficiency of room air conditioners improves significantly. The concern comes at a time when the country is already witnessing record electricity demand during summer months, forcing thermal power plants to operate at near-full capacity.
The power ministry last Friday urged people to use electricity “wisely and judiciously”. “Although we are prepared to supply electricity as required, due to the intense summer, let us all try to use electricity wisely and judiciously,” the ministry said on X.
Why India’s AC Boom Is Accelerating Rapidly
India is currently one of the fastest-growing air conditioner markets in the world. According to industry estimates, Indians are buying 14-15 million AC units every year, and demand is expected to rise sharply over the next decade.
Several factors are driving this surge simultaneously. Rising incomes, expanding urbanisation, smaller homes with poor ventilation and increasingly hash summers are making air-conditioners more common even among middle-class households. Cities that once relied mainly on coolers and fans are now experiencing prolonged heatwaves that push temperatures beyond 45 degrees Celsius.
Climate change is also altering how Indians experience summer. Night-time temperatures are rising in many urban areas, reducing the body’s ability to recover from daytime heat. For many families, especially in densely populated cities, air conditioners are increasingly viewed as essential for sleep, health and productivity rather than aspirational appliances.
The problem, however, is scale. Researchers from the India Energy and Climate Centre (IECC) at University of California (UC) Berkeley estimate India could add another 130-150 million room air conditioners by 2035. That rapid expansion could place enormous stress on the country’s electricity system unless cooling becomes far more energy efficient.
Why ACs Are Becoming India’s Electricity Challenge
Air conditioners consume large amounts of electricity, especially during peak evening hours when millions of households switch them on simultaneously after sunset.
According to the study, room ACs already contribute around 60-70 gigawatts (GW) of India’s peak electricity demand — nearly a quarter of the country’s total peak load. Without stronger efficiency standards, researchers warn that AC-related demand alone could rise to 120 GW by 2030 and nearly 180 GW by 2035. That increase would dramatically reshape India’s power consumption patterns.
“ACs are already contributing 60 to 70 GW to peak demand, and their growth is outpacing the grid’s ability to keep up after sunset,” said Nikit Abhyankar, the study’s lead author and UC Berkeley faculty member. “Without intervention, we risk blackouts or costly emergency fixes. But with smart policy, we can turn this challenge into a win for consumers, manufacturers, and the grid.”
Unlike industrial demand, residential cooling demand spikes sharply during specific hours of the day, particularly in the evening when people return home from work and temperatures remain high. This creates what energy experts call “peak load pressure” — sudden surges in electricity demand that are difficult and expensive to manage.
India has already been repeatedly touching record power demand levels during summers. It has already touched a record 270 GW during the ongoing heatwave spell. The government has already asked citizens to use electricity wisely and thermal power plants have also been instructed to maximise output to prevent shortages during peak summer months.
Residential Cooling Demand Vs Industrial Power Growth
According to a report title ‘From Heatwave to Grid Wave: India’s 270 GW Moment and the Urban Heat Crisis Behind It’, residential cooling demand is now overtaking industrial power demand growth in several regions, with non-residential states such as Uttar Pradesh clocking higher electricity demand than manufacturing heavy state like Maharashtra and Gujarat.
The report noted that Urban Heat Island (UHI) is the primary driving factor of power demand in the country. It further said cities remain significantly warmer during evenings and nights, forcing households to rely on air conditioners, coolers and fans.
The report warned that India’s urban heat problem is expected to intensify further as air conditioner penetration could rise to nearly 40% of households by 2030. However, the report said the increased usage of air conditioners has contributed to urban warming through waste heat emissions.
Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Bihar, Gujarat and Odisha recorded the highest number of UHI days, where intensity ranges from 2 degrees Celsius to 10 degrees Celsius.
The data cited in the report also mentioned that India’s night-time temperature has risen by around 0.21 degrees Celsius per decade between 2010 and 2024.
Why The Risk Of Power Shortages Is Growing
The study estimates India could face an evening power shortfall of around 8 GW by 2030, with shortage risks beginning as early as 2028 if AC efficiency standards remain weak.
The challenge becomes particularly severe after sunset. Solar energy, which has become one of India’s fastest-growing renewable power sources, produces 20% to 35% of the country’s total electricity generation. During peak hours in summer afternoon, when the power grid hits the peak of 256 GW to 271 GW, solar power plants generate around 55 GW to 81 GW of power.
But cooling demand often remains extremely high well into the evening and night, especially during heatwaves. This creates a mismatch between when renewable electricity is available and when households need cooling the most.
As a result, the grid increasingly depends on coal-fired thermal plants during evening peak hours. But rapidly scaling up generation capacity is expensive and environmentally damaging.
The financial implications are enormous. Researchers estimate that improving AC efficiency standards could help India avoid nearly Rs 8 lakh crore in future power infrastructure investments while also saving consumers up to Rs 2.5 lakh crore in electricity costs over time.
Can Energy-Efficient ACs Prevent A Crisis?
Researchers argue that India’s most effective solution may not simply be building more power plants, but making air conditioners significantly more energy efficient.
The Berkley study recommends sharply tightening India’s Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS) for room ACs over the next decade. According to researchers, annual efficiency improvements need to rise to around 6-8% — more than double the historical rate of 2-3% annually.
More efficient ACs consume less electricity while delivering the same cooling output. That means households could reduce electricity bills while the country simultaneously lowers pressure on the grid.
This is particularly important because India’s cooling demand is still at an early stage compared to countries like China or the US. AC penetration in India remains relatively low overall, meaning millions of first-time buyers are expected to enter the market over the coming decade.
What The Government Is Saying About Power Outages
The government has claimed that there is no shortage of electricity supply at the grid level and that outages in states were mainly due to the local distribution failures. Data, however, showed a shortage of 2.6 GW when non-solar power demand peaked at 252 GW on Thursday evening, a Times of India report said.
Several residents in New Delhi and neighbouring Noida took to X to complain about power outages during the night as temperatures remained high amid the ongoing heatwave.
In Odisha, too, residents and local media reported protests in some areas over prolonged power cuts during both daytime and night hours.
Tamil Nadu Minister for Energy Resources and Law R Nirmalkumar said on Saturday that recent outages reported in parts of Chennai and other districts were caused by load-related issues. He further said the Electricity Department had been taking immediate steps to restore supply and manage the situation.
Other reports said that the government has decided that all thermal power plants will remain operational during the season. This means, no maintenance shutdowns will be allowed to ensure uninterrupted power supply as power demand surges. This will boost supply by 15,000 Megawatt to manage the expected spike, officials said.
According to the Coal India Ltd (CIL), there is no coal shortage despite a sharp rise in consumption by thermal power plants, with about 168 million tonnes of coal available in the system.
A regulatory filing said coal stocks at domestic coal-based power plants stood at 47.6 MT as on May 23, while coal inventory at CIL’s mine heads was 113.5 MT as of May 24, up 10% year-on-year.
The company stressed that the available stock is enough to meet around 19 days of consumption.
CIL also said around 50 MT of in-situ mine coal is readily available for faster extraction and supply if demand rises further.
Thus, the future of India’s summers may depend not only on how many air conditioners the country sells, but on how intelligently it manages the cooling revolution already underway.
