Russia is likely deploying new nuclear-capable hypersonic ballistic missiles at a former airbase in eastern Belarus, a move that could significantly enhance Moscow’s ability to strike targets across Europe,
according to two US researchers who analysed satellite imagery.
The findings broadly align with US intelligence assessments, a person familiar with the matter spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity. The deployment would involve the intermediate-range Oreshnik missile system, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has publicly said he intends to station in Belarus, though the location had not been previously disclosed.
Researchers Jeffrey Lewis of the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and Decker Eveleth of CNA said imagery from commercial satellite firm Planet Labs showed features consistent with a Russian strategic missile base. They said they were about 90% certain that mobile Oreshnik launchers would be stationed at a former airbase near Krichev, roughly 190 miles east of Minsk and about 300 miles southwest of Moscow.
The Oreshnik missile is believed to have a range of up to 5,500 km. Russia test-fired a conventionally armed version against a target in Ukraine in November 2024, with Putin claiming the weapon is impossible to intercept due to speeds exceeding Mach 10.
Analysts say deploying the missile in Belarus would underscore Russia’s growing reliance on nuclear signalling as it seeks to deter NATO members from supplying Ukraine with long-range weapons capable of striking deep inside Russian territory. Belarus’ state-run Belta quoted Defence Minister Viktor Khrenin as saying the deployment would not alter Europe’s balance of power and was Belarus’ response to what he called Western “aggressive actions.”
The White House did not comment and the CIA declined to respond.
Revised Russian Strategy
Lewis and Eveleth said satellite images showed hurried construction beginning in early August, with infrastructure typical of a strategic missile base. Among the indicators was a heavily secured rail transfer point capable of receiving missiles and launchers, as well as a concrete pad at the end of a runway covered with earth, consistent with a camouflaged launch site.
Putin has said the Oreshnik could be stationed in Belarus in the second half of this year, marking part of a revised strategy in which Russia bases nuclear weapons outside its territory for the first time since the Cold War. Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko said last week that the first missiles had already been deployed, without specifying where, and indicated that up to 10 Oreshnik systems could eventually be based in the country. The researchers assessed the Krichev site could house only three launchers, suggesting others may be deployed elsewhere.
The development comes as the 2010 New START treaty, the last remaining US-Russia agreement limiting strategic nuclear weapons, nears its expiration.
Some experts remain sceptical. Pavel Podvig, a Geneva-based analyst, said deploying the Oreshnik in Belarus would not provide Russia with meaningful new military advantages beyond reassuring Minsk of Moscow’s protection.
Jeffrey Lewis, speaking to Reuters, said that the move carried strong political symbolism. “There’s no military reason to put the system in Belarus, only political ones,” he said, arguing that it sends a clear message about Russia’s increasing reliance on nuclear deterrence.
-With inputs from Reuters
