Traders have earned huge profits after the United States launched a military operation in Venezuela and captured its President Nicolas Maduro and his wife. Some traders on the Polymarket platform had anticipated
the capture before it was announced by US President Donald Trump, raising concerns over insider trading.
A Polymarket account created in late December became the focal point of online speculation after Donald Trump disclosed that Us forces had taken Maduro into custody following overnight military strikes on Caracas. The account invested $30,000 (Rs 27 lakh) on Friday in Maduro’s exit, and went on to profit $436,759.61 (around Rs 3.93 crore) after the Venezuelan president was captured, according to Axios.
“A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours,” read a post on X.
A newly created Polymarket account invested over $30,000 yesterday in Maduro’s exit. The US then took Maduro into custody overnight, and the trader profited $400,000 in less than 24 hours. Insider trading is not only allowed on prediction markets; it’s encouraged. https://t.co/EtZyW1IWTa pic.twitter.com/MzsU9kOU73
— Joe Pompliano (@JoePompliano) January 3, 2026
The market for Maduro’s removal began climbing shortly before 10 pm ET Friday, hours before Trump’s announcement, the Wall Street Journal reported. One Polymarket trader claimed to have made $80,000 (Rs 72 lakh) betting on Maduro’s capture after they noticed increased orders from Domino’s Pizza locations surrounding the Pentagon, often claimed to be a proxy for increased staffing and late-night activity.
How i made 80,000$ in a single night using @Polymarket
Basically ever since the US brought their largest aircraft carrier i knew a strike was 100% going to happen, but i did not know when. So i built a vibe coded bot to track the dominos pizza orders around the pentagon because… https://t.co/Jx1ODEGtJ2— Sweetcheeks (🌲,🌲) (@SweetcheeksReal) January 3, 2026
Polymarket did not immediately respond to questions about these profits, but the timing came as a surprise to several people. However, there have been noteworthy prediction market swings over political battles, sports matches and other moments, so the idea that Maduro’s capture was of interest to bettors isn’t new.
US Rep To Introduce Bill
Democrat US Representative from New York, Ritchie Torres, is planning to introduce a new bill — the Public Integrity in Financial Prediction Markets Act of 2026 — to limit federal elected officials and some political figures from engaging in prediction markets.
The bill would reportedly bar federal elected officials, political appointees, and executive branch employees from trading prediction market contracts tied to government policy or political outcomes when they possess or could reasonably obtain material nonpublic information through their official duties.
