As Russia’s war in Ukraine drags into another exhausting phase, a fresh wave of reports claiming that the Kremlin fears a coup or assassination attempt against President Vladimir Putin has triggered intense
debate among analysts and political observers.
The reports, first amplified through an independent Russian investigative media outlet iStories, and later picked up by US broadcaster CNN and UK newspaper The Financial Times, cited an unnamed European intelligence agency claiming that security around Putin had been dramatically tightened because of fears of internal threats, including the possibility of a plot emerging from Russia’s own elite circles.
The claims gained traction because they arrived amid visible signs of heightened security in Moscow, scaled-back Victory Day celebrations, and growing evidence that tensions within Russia’s military-political establishment are worsening under the strain of war, sanctions and shrinking resources.
But how credible is the idea of a coup against Putin? And if such fears exist inside the Kremlin, who exactly could challenge one of the world’s most security-protected leaders?
The answer, analysts say, is complicated.
Why Are Coup Rumours Surfacing Now?
The speculation stems from a broader sense that Russia’s internal system is under pressure.
According to the leaked report, Putin’s security apparatus has become increasingly concerned not only about Ukrainian drone attacks but also about threats originating from inside Russia’s own elite networks. It specifically pointed to Sergei Shoigu — Russia’s longtime defence minister who was moved to the post of Security Council secretary in 2024 — as a potentially “destabilising actor” because of his continuing influence within sections of the military establishment.
At the same time, Russia has witnessed a visible tightening of security measures in Moscow. Communications disruptions, deployment of electronic warfare systems capable of interfering with drones, and increased protection around the Kremlin have all been reported in recent months.
Victory Day celebrations on May 9, one of the Kremlin’s most important symbolic events, were also reportedly scaled back because of security concerns.
Political analyst Ekaterina Schulmann said Putin appears genuinely worried about personal security. “When security is the top priority, the safest thing to do is not to appear anywhere,” she said on Telegram.
Former Putin speechwriter Abbas Gallyamov, who now lives outside Russia, told DW that internal conflicts within Russia’s elite military-political circles are worsening and that some factions are increasingly acting independently.
But while these developments have fuelled speculation, many experts remain deeply sceptical that Russia is anywhere close to a genuine coup attempt.
How Does Putin’s Power System Actually Work?
Unlike conventional governments built around strong institutions, Putin’s Russia is often described as a system of competing patronage networks. Different power centres — security agencies, oligarchic networks, military structures and political elites — operate in parallel but remain dependent on the Kremlin for resources, influence and survival.
Alexandra Prokopenko, a former adviser at Russia’s Central Bank and now a political scientist, described the system as multiple “pyramids” built around individual patrons who control access to money, state contracts and decision-making. These groups often compete with each other, but they do not function as a unified bloc capable of collectively challenging Putin.
As long as elite factions continue to receive more benefits from the existing system than they would from risking instability, there is little incentive for an organised rebellion.
This structure is also deliberately designed to prevent the emergence of a rival centre of power.
“The Russian security system is carefully organised to minimise the risk of a coup,” Russia expert Mark Galeotti wrote in The Spectator. Various military and paramilitary structures are designed to balance and monitor each other, while the Federal Protection Service (FSO) — responsible for Putin’s security — is packed with loyalists.
Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB), military counterintelligence units and internal surveillance mechanisms also play a central role in monitoring the elite itself.
Why Is Sergei Shoigu Being Mentioned?
Shoigu was one of Putin’s closest allies for years. Kremlin imagery frequently showed the two fishing, hiking and holidaying together in Siberia. He served as emergencies minister for over a decade before becoming defence minister in 2012.
But his image suffered heavily after Russia’s troubled invasion of Ukraine.
Critics within nationalist and military circles blamed Shoigu and the defence ministry for failures in strategy, logistics and battlefield planning. In 2024, Putin removed him as defence minister and replaced him with economist Andrei Belousov.
Since then, multiple officials associated with Shoigu’s old defence ministry network have faced corruption investigations, arrests and prosecutions.
Former deputy defence minister Timur Ivanov was sentenced to prison in a corruption case. Other senior officials, including Pavel Popov and Dmitry Bulgakov, also came under investigation.
Roman Anin, founder of iStories, argued that despite losing formal influence, Shoigu still retains connections inside powerful “siloviki” circles — a term broadly used for Russia’s security and military elite.
But several analysts believe the idea of Shoigu leading a coup is implausible.
Mark Galeotti called the theory “especially laughable,” arguing that Shoigu’s credibility inside the military has been badly damaged and that many officers associated with him have distanced themselves.
“It is hard to impossible to imagine that he has the authority and credibility within the high command to stage a coup,” he wrote.
Schulmann also noted that neither CNN nor the Financial Times explicitly claimed there was evidence of an active conspiracy led by Shoigu.
What Are ‘Siloviki’?
The term “siloviki” broadly refers to powerful figures drawn from Russia’s military, intelligence and security structures — many of whom have backgrounds in Soviet or post-Soviet security services.
The Guardian once described them as “the Russian security men who have surrounded [Putin], many of whom served in the KGB and have maintained conservative, often conspiratorial political views.”
These networks form the backbone of the Russian state.
For years, Putin’s role was to balance these competing factions while ensuring that none became strong enough to challenge the system itself. Analysts now believe that economic pressure, sanctions and wartime strains are intensifying rivalries within these circles.
According to Prokopenko, the shrinking pool of state resources is making competition more intense. More money and industrial capacity are now directed towards the military and war-related sectors, leaving less for other elite groups.
That does not necessarily mean they want regime change. Instead, the struggle is increasingly about access, influence and survival within Putin’s system itself.
Ironically, analysts say this competition can strengthen Putin because it prevents elite coordination and keeps rival groups dependent on the Kremlin’s approval.
Did The Wagner Mutiny Change Kremlin Thinking?
The closest Russia has come to a direct challenge to Putin in recent years was the Wagner mutiny in June 2023, led by mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin.
Wagner fighters seized military facilities in Rostov-on-Don and marched towards Moscow before abruptly halting after a negotiated settlement.
The episode shocked Russia because it exposed vulnerabilities within the state and demonstrated that armed actors could challenge military authority.
But many analysts argue it was not a true coup attempt.
Galeotti stressed that Prigozhin’s objective was not to overthrow Putin but to pressure him into abandoning support for Shoigu and the defence ministry leadership.
“In any case, the 2,000 or so men who neared Moscow would have had no chance of taking the city, let alone ousting Putin,” he wrote.
Could The Coup Narrative Itself Be Information Warfare?
Galeotti argued that the sudden appearance of reports citing a conveniently unnamed European intelligence agency looked “more like a psyop meant to generate paranoia in the Russian elite than a serious assessment.”
According to this view, the objective may not be to predict a coup but to create mistrust within Putin’s inner circle.
The theory suggests such narratives could encourage suspicion between the Kremlin and senior figures like Shoigu, while simultaneously making elite factions wonder whether they themselves are under scrutiny.
“This would hardly be the first time we have seen such misdirection in the covert shadow wars waged by the spooks,” Galeotti wrote.
So, How Real Is The Threat To Putin?
Most analysts appear to agree on one point: Putin is more security-conscious today than at almost any other stage of his presidency.
Ukraine’s growing drone capabilities, targeted killings of Russian military figures, wartime tensions and elite rivalries have all increased the Kremlin’s sense of vulnerability.
But that does not automatically translate into a credible coup threat.
