Turquoise lagoons, powdery beaches, and overwater bungalows— Maldives is a postcard-perfect haven for honeymooners and divers. But beneath the glamour, a grim reality looms. Rising seas are lapping at the shores
of this Indian Ocean archipelago, threatening to swallow its 1,200 coral islands whole.
With 80% of its land less than a metre above sea level, the Maldives is not just facing erosion; it is staring down existential erasure. As climate change accelerates, small island nations like the Maldives, Tuvalu, Kiribati, and the Marshall Islands are on the frontlines. But is the Maldives truly sinking? And if the land vanishes, what becomes of the nation, its people, and its place in the world?
Let’s dive into the science, the stakes, and the uncertain future for these vulnerable paradises.
How Climate Change Is Drowning Dreams
The Maldives is not “sinking” in the literal sense, but it is being overwhelmed by rising oceans. Global sea levels have climbed about 20 cm since 1900, accelerating to 4 mm per year recently due to melting ice caps and warmer waters expanding. For the Maldives, where the highest point is just 2.4 metres, even modest rises spell disaster. By 2050, projections warn of 30-50 cm increases, potentially submerging 77% of the land by 2100 under worst-case scenarios.
Storms are intensifying too. Cyclones and king tides erode beaches, contaminate freshwater aquifers with saltwater, and destroy infrastructure. In 2024 alone, freak waves flooded Male, the capital, displacing thousands and costing millions in damages. Coral reefs, the islands’ natural barriers, are bleaching from warmer waters, leaving shores exposed. Agriculture suffers as soil salinizes, and tourism—the economic lifeline accounting for 28% of GDP—falters with vanishing beaches.
This is not unique to the Maldives. Across the Pacific and Indian Oceans, small islands face similar fates. Tuvalu’s nine atolls, home to 11,000 people, could be uninhabitable by 2050. Kiribati’s president has already bought land in Fiji as a backup. The Marshall Islands grapple with radioactive legacies from US nuclear tests compounded by rising seas. These nations, contributing negligible emissions, bear the brunt of a crisis fuelled by industrial giants like the US and China.
Losing Homes, Heritage, And Hope
If the land disappears, the fallout is catastrophic. First, displacement: Maldives’ 540,000 residents could become climate refugees, scattering to higher ground in India, Sri Lanka, or Australia. Relocation shatters communities—imagine fishermen without seas or families uprooted from ancestral graves. Cultural erosion follows: Indigenous languages, traditions like Bodu Beru drumming, and folklore tied to the islands fade in exile.
Economically, it is disastrous ruinous. Tourism employs 60% of Maldivians; without beaches, resorts shutter, jobs vanish. Fisheries, another important sector, suffer from disrupted ecosystems. The exclusive economic zone—900,000 square km of ocean rich in tuna—remains, but without a physical base, enforcing rights becomes tricky. Globally, these nations lose bargaining power in forums like the UN, where small islands amplify voices on climate justice.
For residents, health crises loom. Saltwater intrusion poisons drinking water, spreading diseases like cholera. Mental health strains from “solastalgia”—grief for a changing homeland. Children grow up with evacuation drills, their futures clouded by uncertainty.
Can A Nation Survive Without Land?
If the islands submerge, does the nation cease to exist? International law defines a state by four criteria: a permanent population, defined territory, effective government, and capacity for international relations. Losing land threatens all—population scatters, territory vanishes, government relocates, relations weaken.
But law is not rigid. “Failed states” like Somalia retain status despite chaos. Could this flexibility apply to “sunken states”? Recent global discussions suggest yes. A landmark advisory opinion from the world’s top court in July acknowledged climate threats to small islands but noted that losing one element “would not necessarily” end statehood. Some judges argued for extending recognition, emphasising continuity over physical presence.
Precedents exist: The Vatican, a state without much territory, thrives on historical status. Or Nauru, which leased land after phosphate depletion. But submersion is unprecedented—permanent and total. Without clarity, these nations risk losing UN seats, maritime rights, and aid eligibility.
How Maldives Is Fighting
Small islands are not waiting for the waves. The Maldives pumps sand to elevate islands, builds sea walls, and experiments with floating cities. Hulhumale, a man-made island near Male, houses 100,000 and rises 2 metres above sea level. President Mohamed Muizzu pushes “climate-resilient” tourism, like solar-powered resorts.
Tuvalu goes digital: Archiving culture online, moving services to the cloud, and creating a virtual twin for governance. In 2023, it inked a treaty with Australia guaranteeing perpetual statehood recognition, plus migration paths for citizens. Kiribati buys foreign land; the Marshall Islands lobbies for US reparations.
Globally, these nations demand action through alliances like the Alliance of Small Island States (AOSIS). At COP29 in 2025, they push for loss and damage funds—billions from polluters to adapt or relocate. Legal battles brew: Vanuatu seeks ICJ rulings on emitter liability.
Why It Matters
The Maldives’ plight is not isolated— it is a preview of coastal crises everywhere, from Mumbai’s slums to Miami’s shores. By 2100, nearly 200 million could be displaced globally. For India, with 7,500 km of coastline, rising seas threaten 40 million in low-lying areas like the Sundarbans. Shared monsoons and fisheries link our fates; Maldivian refugees could seek haven here, straining resources.
Politically, losing these nations weakens the Global South’s voice on climate. Their UN votes amplify calls for equity—rich nations cut emissions while funding adaptation. If islands vanish, who speaks for the drowned?
Solutions demand urgency: Curb emissions to limit warming to 1.5°C. Fund resilience—$100 billion yearly promised but undelivered. Innovate: Floating habitats, mangrove restoration, or international trusteeships preserving sovereignty.
The Maldives may not “sink” tomorrow, but without action, its essence could fade. As waves rise, the resolve to save these islands from submerging should also become stronger.
