India finds itself ringed by political uncertainty, with Nepal, Myanmar and Bangladesh all grappling with unstable or interim regimes as 2026 is almost here. The churn in these neighbouring nations, marked
by power struggles, street unrest and shifting alliances, has direct implications for India’s security calculus, diplomacy, trade and border management.
For India, the absence of stable, popularly elected governments across its eastern flank translates into a period of strategic ambiguity. All three nations are slated to go to the polls in early 2026, raising hopes of a gradual return to elected rule.
Why does it matter?
In the absence of a clear political authority, India is forced to engage with multiple centres of power like the military, interim administrations, student groups, radical outfits and even actors backed by external forces. This complicates policy-making and undermines predictable communication channels.
A return to stable governments in all the three countries would restore direct, government-to-government engagement, crucial for tackling issues such as border management, trade, connectivity and counter-terrorism.
Myanmar
Myanmar’s military junta, which toppled Aung San Suu Kyi’s elected government in 2021, has announced phased general elections beginning Sunday, even as large parts of the country remain engulfed in civil war and insurgency. With Suu Kyi’s party banned and a quarter of parliamentary seats constitutionally reserved for the military, the outcome appears pre-determined, real power is expected to remain with the generals.
The United Nations and several other nations have already dismissed the exercise as a facade. State media in Myanmar have claimed that India has extended support to the election process, a sensitive point given the direct spillover of Myanmar’s instability into India’s northeast.
Voting will not be nationwide. Of 330 townships, only 265 are slated to vote, in three phases: December 28 (102 townships), January 11 (100) and January 25 (63).
Nepal
Nepal heads for parliamentary polls on March 5, 2026, but its political pitch is already being upended. A new cohort including Kathmandu mayor Balen Shah, former journalist Rabi Lamichhane and widely admired administrator Kulman Ghising, is challenging the dominance of traditional communist parties.
The churn reflects public anger over the failure of political elites to deliver meaningful change since the end of the Maoist insurgency in 2006. Discontent over unemployment, corruption and backroom deals has fuelled a surge in youth-backed alternatives. Earlier this year, the country saw a coup and the installation of an interim prime minister, Sushila Karki, seen as India-friendly.
For India, Nepal remains acutely sensitive, an open border, China’s growing footprint and frequent government changes heighten concern. A strong, popularly backed government could steady bilateral ties.
Bangladesh
Bangladesh is slated to vote on February 12, 2026, but the run-up to the election is fraught. The Awami League, led by former prime minister Sheikh Hasina, is out of power and banned. Into this vacuum has stepped the National Citizen Party, born of student movements, which is reportedly edging towards an alliance with hardline groups such as Jamaat-e-Islami.
Any mainstreaming of Islamist hardliners could affect cross-border security, minority rights and amplify anti-India rhetoric. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), headed by former PM Khaleda Zia, is currently the frontrunner. The return of her son Tarique Rahman from the UK this week has strengthened the party’s hand. Pakistan, too, has sought to expand its influence in the Bangladeshi political theatre, a trend India is watching closely.
However, analysts say that once an elected government is in place, the space for external meddling is likely to shrink compared with the present period of flux.
