Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi on Sunday said Tehran would welcome any initiative to a “complete end to the war”, Reuters reported citing state media. Will it be so easy? Will US and Israel agree?
What happened on Day 16? Why did Iran sayso?
What forced Iran to change its mind? The 3 reasons
While Tehran publicly frames its peace proposal as a commitment to regional stability, analysts point to several “breaking points” that have forced this pivot.
1. Decimation of military
Since Operation Epic Fury began on February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces have executed what President Trump described as the most powerful bombing raids in history, according to Al Jazeera and other reports.
The initial strikes killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and dozens of top IRGC officials, creating a profound power vacuum and command instability. The US claims to have destroyed over 50 naval vessels, including a major drone carrier, and decimatedIran’s missile and drone manufacturing.
Iranian ballistic missile attacks are reportedly down by over 90%, and its air defences have been almost entirely neutralised, allowing Israel to strike anywhere in Iran with impunity.
2. The Kharg Island threat
Iran’s most critical economic lifeline is Kharg Island, which handles 90% of its oil exports.
Explained | Iran’s ‘Orphan Pearl’ Kharg Island Is Precious For The World Too: Why Trump Must Spare It
On March 13, the U.S. destroyed over 90 military targets on the island but deliberately spared the oil infrastructure. Trump has explicitly stated that if Iran continues to block the Strait of Hormuz, the oil terminals are “next”.
This threat of total economic annihilation is a primary driver for Iran’s peace conditions, according to reports.
3. Internal and regional instability
The regime is facing unprecedented pressure on multiple domestic fronts:
- With oil exports largely halted due to the maritime blockade and insurance cancellations, the Iranian rial is in freefall and inflation is soaring.
- Leadership is reportedly concerned that prolonged hardship will trigger a mass uprising similar to the 2022 protests, potentially toppling the remaining clerical structure.
- Massive displacement in Lebanon over 830,000 people and the heavy toll on Hezbollah have weakened Iran’s “forward defence” strategy, leaving it more exposed.
Iran had set 3 conditions to end the war with US-Israel
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has outlined three specific conditions that must be met to end the ongoing war with the United States and Israel. These demands, released following strategic discussions with leaders from Russia and Pakistan, represented Tehran’s first formal “off-ramp” proposal since the conflict began on February 28.
Condition 1: Tehran demands that the international community formally acknowledge its sovereign rights, specifically its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes under the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).
Condition 2: Iran is seeking financial compensation for the extensive damage to its infrastructure, including the destruction of over 16,000 residential units and numerous medical centres during U.S. and Israeli airstrikes.
Condition 2: Iran insists on “ironclad,” legally binding assurances from the international community that the U.S. and Israel will not engage in future aggression or invasions once a ceasefire is reached, according to Al Jazeera and other media reports.
Trump’s response and why he wants to keep the war going
US President Donald Trump has largely dismissed these conditions. Trump stated that while Iran appears ready to make a deal, the current “terms aren’t good enough yet”. He also threatened more strikes on Kharg Island, remarking the U.S. might hit it “a few more times just for fun”.
Trump has urged allies, specifically China, Japan, South Korea, and the UK, to send warships to help secure the Strait of Hormuz.
Prime Minister Netanyahu has indicated that Israel’s goal is the permanent removal of Iran’s nuclear capabilities and its regional proxies Hezbollah and Houthis, a process that could take months of sustained bombing.
Switzerland has rejected two US requests for military overflights related to the conflict, citing its laws of neutrality.
Can US President Trump Secure Strait Of Hormuz With Global Show Of Force Against Iran? Explained
Meanwhile, Iran’s new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has vowed to keep the Strait of Hormuz shut as a strategic lever until Iran’s security is guaranteed. While the Strait remains impassable for most, Iranian officials claim they have allowed some ships to pass, though they require all vessels to coordinate directly with the Iranian Navy.
The war’s end likely hinges on Kharg Island. If the US destroys the oil terminals, Iran’s economy collapses, which could lead to either a rapid surrender or a “suicidal” final escalation. If the US continues to spare the oil, it keeps a “bargaining chip” alive for a negotiated peace.
US-Israel-Iran war day 16: What happened on March 15 so far
The US-Israel-Iran war entered its 16th day on March 15 with a massive escalation in air operations and a widening regional impact.
Israel, US attack: The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced a new, broad wave of airstrikes targeting Iranian infrastructure in western provinces to degrade ballistic missile launch capabilities. Israel claimed to have killed two senior Iranian intelligence officials, Abdollah Jalali-Nasab and Amir Shariat, in a strike in Tehran.
US-Israeli strikes reportedly hit a factory in Isfahan, killing at least 15 people.
US-Israel-Iran War LIVE Updates HERE
Iran: Iran launched approximately 1,430 missiles and hundreds of drones at Israel and U.S. bases in the Gulf. Impacts were reported in central Israel (Beersheba and Holon), while interceptions occurred over Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. Iranian state media released footage of its underground “missile cities” to showcase its remaining long-range ballistic and anti-ship missile power, Al Jazeera reported.
Black rain: Residents in Tehran reported oily ‘black rain’ caused by toxic smoke from bombed oil facilities returning to Earth.
Evacuations and disruptions: South Korea conducted an “unprecedented” military operation to evacuate over 200 citizens from the region. The US State Department ordered non-emergency personnel and their families to leave Oman.
In Lebanon, the death toll from Israeli strikes on Hezbollah has risen to 826, with over 830,000 people displaced.
Air India and other carriers cancelled most flights to Dubai and Abu Dhabi due to UAE airspace restrictions. Formula One cancelled the upcoming Bahrain and Saudi Arabian Grands Prix scheduled for April. CBSE cancelled Class 12 board exams for students in Middle Eastern countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE, according to reports.
What may lead to a ceasefire
Iran is under extreme pressure from the destruction of its military infrastructure.
With oil prices hitting $150 per barrel, there is immense international pressure on President Trump from allies and China to stabilise the Strait of Hormuz to prevent a global recession.
Trump has stated that Iran is “ready to make a deal,” suggesting he prefers a signed agreement over a long-term ground invasion.
With Agency Inputs
