A year before the 2027 Uttar Pradesh assembly elections, the political temperature in the state is set to rise with bypolls in three strategically important assembly constituencies — Ghosi (Mau), Duddhi
(Sonbhadra) and Faridpur (Bareilly). Triggered by the deaths of sitting MLAs, these bypolls are being widely described by political observers as the “semi-final” before the 2027 assembly polls, given their potential to reshape caste equations, morale and political narratives across the state. The bypolls are likely to be held around April-May, possibly alongside elections in other states. Notably, Ghosi and Duddhi will witness a second bypoll within the same five-year assembly term, an uncommon political development in Uttar Pradesh.
Why these bypolls matter
Of the three seats, Ghosi and Duddhi were last held by the Samajwadi Party (SP), while Faridpur is a Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) seat. Beyond the arithmetic of three seats, the contests will act as a testing ground for caste mobilisation, sympathy voting and organisational strength — all of which will be crucial in 2027.
“These bypolls are not just local contests; they are being seen as a rehearsal for 2027,” said Shashikant Pandey, Head of the Department of Political Science at Dr Bhimrao Ambedkar University, Lucknow. “Political parties are keenly watching how caste alliances shape up. That is why these contests are being called the semi-finals ahead of the Assembly elections.”
Ghosi: OBC fault lines and Muslim-Yadav core
The Ghosi assembly seat in Mau has emerged as one of the most politically sensitive constituencies in eastern Uttar Pradesh. The seat has a dominant OBC population, with Rajbhars, Chauhans and Yadavs forming the core voting blocs, alongside a significant Muslim electorate.
In the 2023 bypolls, held after Dara Singh Chauhan quit the SP and joined the BJP, the electorate delivered a strong message by electing SP’s Sudhakar Singh with a margin of over 42,000 votes—largely due to the consolidation of Muslim and Yadav voters, coupled with sympathy and anti-defection sentiment.
Following Sudhakar Singh’s death in November 2025, the SP has again leaned on the sympathy factor by fielding his son Sujeet Singh, hoping to retain the Muslim-Yadav (MY) base while preventing OBC fragmentation.
The BJP, on the other hand, is expected to field Vijay Rajbhar, aiming to consolidate Rajbhar voters, while also reaching out to Chauhan voters through senior leaders like Dara Singh Chauhan and Phagu Chauhan. The contest in Ghosi is expected to revolve around whether the BJP can break the MY consolidation by polarising OBC sub-castes.
Duddhi: Tribal dominance and Dalit consolidation
The Duddhi assembly constituency in Sonbhadra, a reserved seat, is heavily influenced by tribal and Dalit voters, particularly Gond, Panika and other Adivasi communities. Caste equations here are deeply intertwined with identity politics and long-standing loyalty to local leadership.
The death of veteran tribal leader Vijay Singh Gond, an eight-time MLA, has once again opened the seat to a by-election. Gond’s political strength rested on his deep personal connect with tribal communities, cutting across party lines.
The SP is expected to field a member of his family — most likely his younger son Narendra Pratap Singh—to capitalise on sympathy and tribal loyalty. The party hopes to retain the near-total consolidation of Adivasi and Dalit votes, which proved decisive in the 2024 by-election.
The BJP is likely to back Shravan Gond, focusing on consolidating non-SP tribal voters and mobilising its organisational network. However, breaking the emotional and caste-based hold of the Gond family remains a major challenge for the ruling party in Duddhi.
Faridpur: Dalit seat with Muslim-upper caste swing
The Faridpur Assembly constituency in Bareilly, also a reserved seat, presents a more complex caste picture. While Dalits form the core electorate, the outcome often hinges on how Muslim voters and upper-caste Hindus align.
BJP MLA Dr Shyam Bihari Lal, who passed away in January 2026, had successfully built a coalition of Dalits, non-Yadav OBCs and sections of upper-caste voters, breaking the constituency’s long-standing trend of rejecting incumbents.
The BJP is expected to rely on the sympathy factor, possibly by fielding a family member, while also banking on its traditional organisational strength among non-Jatav Dalits.
The SP, meanwhile, is considering re-nominating former MLA Vijay Pal Singh, hoping to consolidate Muslim votes and regain the support of Dalits who have oscillated between parties in recent elections. In Faridpur, even a slight shift in Muslim or upper-caste voting patterns could decisively impact the result.
‘Semi-final’ before 2027
While analysts caution against directly extrapolating the by-election results to predict the 2027 outcome, there is broad consensus that these contests will shape political confidence.
“By-elections in Uttar Pradesh are often influenced by the ruling party’s administrative advantage,” Pandey said. “But politically, winning these seats gives momentum, narrative control and psychological edge. That is why both the BJP and SP are treating these by-polls as semi-finals before the final battle in 2027.”
As Uttar Pradesh heads into a packed electoral calendar, the battles for Ghosi, Duddhi and Faridpur are set to offer the first real indication of how caste equations and political strategies are evolving ahead of the 2027 assembly elections.
