Indian equity markets head into Monday’s session riding strong momentum, but with a fresh global risk factor now entering the equation. Reports of US military strikes on Venezuela late last week have introduced
geopolitical uncertainty. The key question for investors now is whether this development disrupts the ongoing rally or remains a short-lived global headline risk.
Where the market stands after last week
Benchmark indices ended the previous week at record highs, extending gains for the second consecutive week. The Nifty50 closed at 26,328.55, while the Sensex settled at 85,762, supported by strong banking performance, resilient broader markets, and optimism around domestic growth. Bank Nifty surged past the psychological 60,000 mark, while midcap and smallcap indices continued to show healthy participation.
The rally was driven by a mix of technical breakouts, positive banking updates, easing foreign selling pressure, and improving domestic macro cues such as industrial production. However, foreign institutional investors remained net sellers, even as domestic institutions continued to cushion the downside.
How US-Venezuela tensions could matter
The US action against Venezuela adds a geopolitical risk premium, particularly through the energy channel. Venezuela is a key crude producer, and any escalation could firm up oil prices. For India, higher crude prices typically translate into concerns around inflation, fiscal math, and the rupee — factors that can temper equity sentiment, at least in the short term.
According to a market expert, “Markets globally have recently shown a tendency to absorb geopolitical shocks unless they threaten energy supplies materially or trigger sustained risk-off flows. The initial reaction on Monday is therefore likely to be cautious rather than panicky, with volatility picking up in early trade.”
Technical outlook for Nifty
According to technical analysts, the technical structure of the Nifty remains strong.
- Immediate support: 26,000
- Stronger support zone: 25,900-25,700
- Near-term resistance: 26,500
- Higher upside targets: 26,750-27,000 (on sustained breakout)
“A healthy retest of the recent breakout zone around 26200–26150 could offer a favourable buying opportunity. As long as its trading above 25900 support, the outlook remains positive. Immediate resistance is placed near 26500, and a sustained breakout could propel the index toward 26750. A buy-on-dips strategy remains appropriate for the coming week,” said Ravi Singh, chief research officer from Master Capital Services.
Bank Nifty: key levels to watch
Bank Nifty remains the market’s leadership index, having broken out after nearly a month of consolidation.
- Immediate support: 59,700-59,800
- Major support: 59,300
- Resistance zone: 60,500-60,600
- Upside potential: 61,000 and above on breakout
PSU banks continue to show relative strength, while select private banks have lagged, keeping the index in a sideways-to-positive bias.
Strategy for Monday
Given the strong domestic setup but rising global uncertainty, a buy-on-dips approach appears prudent rather than aggressive chasing at record highs. Traders should be prepared for intraday volatility linked to global cues, particularly crude oil price movements and overnight US market reaction to the Venezuela developments, according to analysts.
“The coming week is expected to be data-heavy, both domestically and globally, as markets enter the early phase of the earnings season. In India, investors will track the final readings of the HSBC Services PMI and Composite PMI, followed by FY GDP growth data. Bank loan growth, deposit growth, and foreign exchange reserves data will offer insights into credit demand and liquidity conditions. Globally, key US macro data and releases from China will be closely watched for signals on growth, demand, and inflation trends,” said Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president (research) of Religare Broking.
