The United States expects the sharpest decline in international visitors this year to come from India, according to an official forecast by the US Commerce Department’s National Travel and Tourism Office
(NTTO).
According to the US commerce department’s NTTO’s official forecast for 2026, the country sees getting over 7 crore international visitors, 3.2% more than last year’s 6.8 crore.
“Of the top 12 source markets, arrivals from 10 countries are projected to grow in 2026,” it says. The two from where numbers are expected to drop are India (over 4%) and France (around 1%).
India ranked as the fourth-largest source market for international visitors to the US in 2025 and the second-largest overseas market after the UK. Mexico and Canada, which share borders with the US, were ahead of India. However, Japan and Brazil are projected to move ahead this year, pushing India down to the sixth position.
The study noted, “India and China present divergent near-term outlooks. Arrivals from India are projected to contract 4.1% in 2026, with a return to growth anticipated in 2027. Chinese arrivals are forecast to grow by 3.5% in 2026, with more robust growth projected through 2030.”
The projected decline comes amid several challenges faced by Indian travellers heading to the US in recent months. These include visa-related issues, especially for students, reduced connectivity after Air India cut flights due to airspace restrictions, and high airfares even before the West Asia conflict began.
United Airlines has also not restored pre-Covid flight levels because of restrictions on US carriers flying over Russia. The US-Iran war has further affected travel demand.
“There are apprehensions in the minds of many Indians. Some of them may be unfounded but overall, travel to the US and Canada have been declining for a while,” said a travel agent.
