France is once again on the verge of government collapse, with Prime Minister François Bayrou facing a critical vote of confidence in the National Assembly on September 8. If he loses, he would become
the fourth prime minister to fall in just 18 months, underscoring the ongoing instability plaguing one of Europe’s largest economies.
Bayrou’s minority government, appointed by President Emmanuel Macron in late 2024, is attempting to push through a controversial budget plan that proposes €44 billion (about $51 billion) in spending cuts. This includes deeply unpopular measures like abolishing two public holidays, freezing public sector hiring, and cutting back on pension-related benefits.
However, opposition parties across the political spectrum have vowed to vote against Bayrou, making the survival of his government extremely unlikely.
On the left, a party called La France Insoumise (or Unbowed France), which is known for its radical economic views, said it wants to bring down the government. The more moderate Socialist Party, once one of France’s major parties, has also said it will vote against Bayrou, calling his budget unfair to ordinary people. Leaders of the Green Party, who focus on environmental and social issues, described the vote as a sign that Bayrou had effectively “resigned” already.
On the right, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, a far-right party that has been gaining support in recent years, has also refused to support Bayrou. The party’s president, Jordan Bardella, said Bayrou’s economic policies are hurting ordinary French citizens. Taken together, these groups make up a clear majority in the 577-member National Assembly, meaning Bayrou is almost certain to lose the vote.
What Is A Vote Of Confidence?
In France’s semi-presidential system, the prime minister leads the government and is responsible for passing legislation, including the national budget. A vote of confidence is a mechanism that allows lawmakers to affirm or withdraw their support for the prime minister and their cabinet.
If the majority of members in the National Assembly vote against the government, it is considered to have lost the confidence of parliament. This typically leads to the resignation of the prime minister and the appointment of a new head of government.
If Bayrou loses the September 8 vote, President Macron will be forced to appoint a new prime minister, the third within a single year. Since Macron’s centrist coalition no longer holds a majority in parliament, finding a replacement who can unite the fragmented legislature will be a significant challenge.
How Did France Get Here? A Quick Look At The Political Background
The roots of the current crisis go back to the 2022 and 2024 legislative elections, when no single party or alliance managed to win an outright majority in the National Assembly. Macron’s centrist bloc, Ensemble, has struggled to govern effectively since then, relying on fragile alliances and occasional defections.
When Prime Minister Michel Barnier was forced to resign in late 2024, Bayrou was appointed as a compromise candidate to stabilise the government and push through key fiscal reforms. However, the lack of parliamentary consensus has made his job increasingly difficult.
France’s opposition is not united ideologically, but all major factions, including the left, the Greens, the conservatives, and the far-right, have expressed opposition to the current budget proposal. According to Al Jazeera, more than 320 of the 577 members in the National Assembly are expected to vote against Bayrou’s government.
What’s In The Budget That Has Sparked So Much Opposition?
Bayrou’s proposed budget aims to reduce France’s budget deficit from 5.8 per cent of GDP in 2023 to 4.6 per cent by 2026, and further down to 2.8 per cent by 2029. To achieve this, the government wants to cut €44 billion in spending, 80 per cent of which would come from public expenditure reductions, according to Sky News.
Key proposals include:
- Eliminating Easter Monday and Victory in Europe Day as public holidays to boost productivity
- Reducing public sector hiring
- Suspending pension indexation to inflation
- Considering higher taxes on high-income earners
These proposals have come on the heels of Macron’s deeply unpopular decision in 2023 to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64, a move that triggered massive protests. Macron’s broader economic strategy also included major tax cuts in 2017, which reduced wealth, housing, and capital gains taxes by €62 billion annually.
While these measures initially spurred investment and lowered unemployment, France’s public finances came under severe pressure over the following years. The government was forced to spend heavily on subsidies and bailouts during a series of crises, including the 2018 Yellow Vest movement, where weeks of protests erupted over fuel prices and income inequality; the Covid-19 pandemic, which led to large-scale economic relief programmes; and the war in Ukraine, which triggered fresh energy subsidies.
How Bad Is France’s Debt Situation?
France’s gross national debt currently stands at €3.3 trillion, up from €2.2 trillion when Macron first came to power in 2017. That figure now represents nearly 114 per cent of the country’s GDP, a record high, according to Sky News.
By comparison:
- The United Kingdom’s debt is roughly the same in absolute terms (£2.9 trillion), but only 96.3 per cent of its GDP
- TheEuropean Union allows member states to maintain deficits below 3 per cent of GDP. France’s deficit is almost double that
The Bayrou government argues that without immediate cuts, the deficit could climb even further, leading to potential downgrades in France’s credit rating and much higher borrowing costs. As Al Jazeera points out, the government hopes to keep the debt-to-GDP ratio at 117.2 per cent by 2029, compared to 125.3 per cent if no reforms are made.
Is An IMF Bailout On The Table?
In a controversial remark on August 26, Finance Minister Eric Lombard warned that if France failed to rein in its debt, a bailout from the International Monetary Fund could become a real possibility. This was later walked back, but it caused alarm in both political and financial circles. IMF assistance is typically seen as a last resort for emerging markets, not G7 economies like France.
Analysts believe intervention by the European Central Bank would be more likely in such a scenario. However, the fact that IMF involvement is even being discussed underscores the seriousness of the crisis.
What Happens If Bayrou Falls?
If Bayrou loses the September 8 vote, Macron will face several unenviable options. He can:
- Appoint another prime minister from within his centrist coalition
- Try to form a broader alliance with conservatives or the left (unlikely)
- Call fresh legislative elections (which he has so far refused to do)
France’s parliament remains deeply divided. Even a new prime minister would struggle to pass the same budget. The risk is that France enters another prolonged phase of “caretaker governments” without the ability to make serious fiscal decisions.
Some politicians, including Marine Le Pen, have urged Macron to call snap elections. However, recent polls suggest no major shift in voter preferences since the 2024 election. The National Rally continues to lead in presidential polls, with its likely candidate Jordan Bardella polling between 30 and 31 per cent, Al Jazeera reported.
What’s At Stake For France And Europe?
The crisis is not just about domestic politics. France is the European Union’s second-largest economy and one of its founding members. If political instability continues and financial markets start to worry that France may struggle to manage its debt, investors could begin treating French bonds as risky, much like they did with countries such as Greece, Italy, and Spain during the Eurozone debt crisis a decade ago. That could increase borrowing costs across Europe and undermine confidence in the euro itself.
As Sky News notes, rising borrowing costs reduce the government’s ability to spend elsewhere—on defence, infrastructure, or public services—and could make future reforms even more painful.
Europe has watched Italy stabilise under Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni. But France, once seen as the bloc’s steady hand, now risks becoming the new source of economic volatility.
