2025 was marked as a year of selling for FII (Foreign Institutional Investors), which offloaded equities worth over Rs 1.5 lakh crore (till December 20th). The outflow was driven by a slew of factors,
including overstretched equity valuations, persistent geopolitical uncertainty, trade issues, and tighter global liquidity, along with concerns around fiscal pressures, policy uncertainty, and rupee volatility.
Market experts subdued the concerns of net outflow, calling it ‘portfolio rotation and global risk recalibration rather than a loss of confidence in India’s long-term story’.
According to Ross Maxwell, Global Strategy Operations Lead at VT Markets, the year-end FPI pullback is being driven by a mix of global tightening and domestic valuation concerns.
Global Headwinds Trigger Risk-Off Mood
From a global perspective, higher-for-longer interest rates in the US and a stronger dollar have increased the relative appeal of developed market assets. This has reduced the risk premium for emerging markets, including India.
Maxwell notes that persistent geopolitical tensions, trade uncertainties, and tight global liquidity have reinforced a risk-off stance toward the end of the year. “December is typically a period when FPIs rebalance portfolios, book profits, and reduce exposure to risk assets,” he said, explaining the timing of the outflows.
Echoing this view, Swapnil Aggarwal, Director at VSRK Capital, said the year-end FPI selling is largely driven by global and tactical factors.
He pointed out that a strong US dollar drawing capital back to developed markets, profit-booking after a sharp rally, valuation concerns, global risk sentiment, portfolio rebalancing, and currency pressures are the main triggers behind the recent outflows.
“FPI selling is cyclical in nature and does not indicate weakening fundamentals for India,” Aggarwal said.
Selling Reflects Rotation, Not Exit
A key takeaway from 2025 flows is that FPIs are reallocating capital rather than exiting emerging markets altogether. A large part of the selling has gone into markets perceived to offer better value or quicker returns in the current global cycle.
“The outflows should be seen more as rotation than a structural exit from India,” Maxwell indicated, adding that India continues to remain on the radar for long-term global investors.
What To Expect in 2026: Selective Re-Entry Likely
Looking ahead, experts believe 2026 will bring a more nuanced flow picture. Broad-based inflows may remain limited if global interest rates stay elevated, but selective re-entry is likely.
Maxwell expects FPIs to focus on sectors aligned with India’s medium-term growth drivers such as manufacturing, infrastructure, defence, capital goods, and energy transition. Investors are likely to favour companies with strong balance sheets and clear earnings visibility, which could result in intermittent volatility rather than steady inflows.
Aggarwal added that easing valuations, stabilising global yields, and potential US rate cuts could attract FPIs back to Indian markets. “Earnings growth in India will continue to draw foreign capital,” he said, while cautioning that volatility may persist.
Both experts agree that strong domestic institutional and retail participation will continue to provide a cushion against sharp market downside. While foreign flows in 2026 may turn opportunistic rather than uniformly bullish, India’s long-term growth story remains intact.
