Hurricane Erin, which formed in the Atlantic Ocean earlier this week, has intensified at an alarming pace and is expected to become a major storm within days. The US National Hurricane Centre (NHC) said
in a late Friday night advisory that the system could escalate from Category 2 to Category 4 strength by Sunday.
By 8 pm Friday, Erin’s winds were clocked at 85 miles per hour (137 kph). Just three hours later, maximum sustained speeds had surged to 100 mph (160 kph). The storm is currently tracking north of the Leeward Islands, raising the risk of tropical storm conditions for territories including Anguilla, St. Martin, St. Barthelemy, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Sint Maarten within the next 24 hours.
The NHC forecast shows Erin passing very close to the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Turks and Caicos and the south-eastern Bahamas have also been urged to remain vigilant. Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands could see up to 4 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 6 inches possible, accompanied by gusts up to 50 mph and potential landslides.
The NHC has warned of dangerous swells and strong currents, though the risk of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the US East Coast “appears to be gradually decreasing”.
As of the 11 pm EDT advisory, Erin was located about 405 kilometres northeast of Anguilla, moving west-northwest at 27 kph. Hurricane specialist Michael Lowry said Erin is forecast to eventually take a sharp turn northeast, tracking between the US and Bermuda. “All of our best consensus aids show Erin turning safely east of the United States next week, but it’ll be a much closer call for Bermuda, which could land on the stronger eastern side of Erin,” he noted.
The storm, the first hurricane of the Atlantic season, is expected to reach Category 3 strength late this weekend and pass roughly 320 kilometres north of Puerto Rico. The US government has deployed over 200 Federal Emergency Management Agency and other personnel to the island as a precaution. A flood watch is in effect for the entire US territory through Monday.
Puerto Rico Housing Secretary Ciary Perez Pena said 367 shelters have been inspected and could be opened if needed. The US Coast Guard has already closed six seaports in Puerto Rico and two in the US Virgin Islands to most vessels without prior authorisation. In the Bahamas, officials have prepared public shelters and urged residents to closely monitor the storm’s progress. “These storms are very volatile and can make sudden shifts in movement,” warned Aarone Sargent, managing director of the country’s disaster risk management authority.
Along the US East Coast, dangerous surf and rip currents are expected next week, with waves potentially reaching 15 feet in parts of North Carolina, which could cause significant beach erosion, according to Accuweather. “Erin is forecast to explode into a powerful Category 4 hurricane as it moves across very warm waters in the open Atlantic. Water temperatures at the surface and hundreds of feet deep are several degrees higher than the historical average,” said Alex DaSilva, Accuweather’s lead hurricane expert.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30. Erin is the fifth named storm of the year, in what forecasters say will be an unusually active season. NOAA projects 13 to 18 named storms this year, with 5 to 9 becoming hurricanes — 3 to 5 of them potentially reaching major status.
