Weather Update: As the Philippines prepares for the possibility of another tropical cyclone before the end of 2026, India is also keeping a close watch on weather developments over the Bay of Bengal. The
two developments are separate, but both highlight the potential for intense weather activity across the region in the coming weeks.
The Philippines’ weather agency, PAGASA, has indicated that one or two more tropical cyclones could enter or form within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in November, with another one or two possible in December. The next system to enter the monitoring area will be assigned the local name, Tomas.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD), meanwhile, is tracking a developing system over the Bay of Bengal that could intensify into a depression around November 15. The system may strengthen further into a cyclonic storm during the following week, although weather models are yet to agree on its likely track and landfall location.
For India, the immediate areas to watch include the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu and Kerala. The IMD has also indicated the possibility of increased rainfall over parts of East and Northeast India later in November.
Bay Of Bengal Weather System: Which Indian Regions Could See Rain?
According to the IMD’s extended-range forecast issued on November 12, an upper-air cyclonic circulation over the Andaman Sea and adjoining areas is likely to trigger a low-pressure area over the southeast Bay of Bengal around November 13. The system is expected to become more marked around November 14 and could develop into a depression over the central parts of the south Bay of Bengal around November 15. It may intensify further while moving towards northern latitudes.
The IMD has forecast fairly widespread to widespread rainfall over the Andaman and Nicobar Islands between November 12 and 18. Isolated heavy rainfall is also likely in the islands between November 12 and 16.
Port Blair and other island settlements are among the key places to watch as the weather system develops. However, the IMD has not issued a specific city-level cyclone warning or identified a landfall location.
For the week of November 19 to 25, isolated heavy rainfall is likely over Tamil Nadu and Kerala on some days. This could bring wet weather to major urban centres such as Chennai, Puducherry, Thiruvananthapuram and Kochi, depending on the system’s eventual movement. These cities are regional reference points, not locations under a confirmed direct-hit forecast.
The IMD has also indicated that rainfall activity could increase over East and Northeast India during the first half of the same week.
Will The Bay Of Bengal System Become A Cyclone?
There is growing model agreement that the system could develop into a cyclonic storm over the central parts of the south Bay of Bengal during November 19-25. However, forecasts differ on its possible direction and landfall location.
The IMD has cautioned that rainfall distribution during the second week will depend on the system’s eventual track and where it makes landfall, if it does.
This means it is too early to identify which Indian coastal districts or cities could face the strongest impact. Further updates from the weather department will be important in determining the areas that may need to prepare for heavy rain, strong winds or coastal hazards.
Philippines Could Get Cyclone Named Tomas Before December Ends
While India monitors the Bay of Bengal, PAGASA has warned that the Philippines could see more tropical cyclone activity before the end of the year. The agency’s outlook suggests that one or two tropical cyclones could enter or develop within the PAR in November, with another one or two possible in December. The next storm to enter the monitoring area will be called Tomas under the country’s local naming system.
There is, however, no confirmed date for Tomas to form or enter the PAR. PAGASA has not issued an official forecast stating that the system will develop in the final days of December or make landfall in the Philippines.
Northern Luzon and coastal areas along the country’s eastern side are among the regions that traditionally need to remain alert to storms approaching from the Pacific. PAGASA has noted that November cyclones historically make landfall in areas including the Bicol Region, Eastern Visayas and Caraga, although individual storm tracks can vary.
Could Storm Tomas Bring Winds Of 184 Kmph?
Claims that Tomas could reach wind speeds of 184 kmph have not been confirmed by an official forecast. Under PAGASA’s classification, a typhoon has maximum sustained winds of 118-184 kmph, while a super typhoon has winds of at least 185 kmph. These are classification thresholds, not predicted wind speeds for Tomas.
If a powerful cyclone develops and approaches land, its potential hazards could include damage to buildings, uprooted trees, disrupted electricity and communication networks, flooding and landslides.
Strong winds can also generate dangerous waves and storm surges, putting coastal communities, fishing boats and shipping operations at risk. The duration and severity of these impacts would depend on the storm’s speed, intensity and movement.
There is also no official confirmation that Tomas will remain active for 10 days or that its direct impact on coastal areas will last for a specific period.
The Philippines recently monitored Typhoon Cempaka, which was assigned the local name Samuel after entering the country’s monitoring area on November 9.
What Should Indian Coastal Residents And Travellers Watch For?
For people living in or travelling to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Tamil Nadu and Kerala, the immediate priority is to follow IMD updates on rainfall, wind conditions and sea state.
Travellers planning trips to Port Blair, Chennai, Puducherry, Kochi or Thiruvananthapuram should check local weather advisories before making arrangements, particularly for ferry services, coastal excursions and other outdoor activities.
Residents in vulnerable coastal and low-lying areas should also follow local administration instructions if heavy rain or flooding warnings are issued.
