The BJP-led NDA is set to get a significant numerical boost in the Rajya Sabha, with the ruling party poised to strengthen its position ahead of a politically crucial Monsoon Session, where the Centre
is expected to push major legislative reforms, including bills on delimitation, women’s reservation and possibly simultaneous elections.
The immediate boost comes from West Bengal, where the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is expected to win all three Rajya Sabha by-elections scheduled for July 24 after the resignation of three former Trinamool Congress MPs who have since joined the BJP. With the BJP now in power in West Bengal, the party has the numbers in the Assembly to comfortably secure all three seats, with no serious challenge expected.
Once the three members enter the Upper House, the BJP’s strength will rise to 117, its highest-ever tally in the Rajya Sabha. The NDA’s overall strength will increase to 152.
Just Six Seats Away From Majority
The new tally leaves the BJP just six seats short of the 123 needed for a simple majority in the current effective strength of the Rajya Sabha.
The last time a single political party enjoyed a majority in the Upper House was in 1986, when the Congress under Prime Minister Rajiv Gandhi commanded the numbers.
While the BJP remains short of a majority on its own, the NDA’s tally of 152 puts the ruling alliance in a significantly stronger position for ordinary legislation.
Eye On Constitutional Amendments
The more significant test, however, will be constitutional amendments.
A constitutional amendment requires the support of at least two-thirds of members present and voting, with 166 members constituting the two-thirds mark if the full effective strength participates.
The government is widely expected to introduce politically significant constitutional legislation in the coming months, including measures linked to delimitation and the implementation of women’s reservation.
Where Additional Support Could Come From
Even though the NDA is below the two-thirds threshold on paper, the government could potentially bridge the gap through issue-based support or abstentions from several regional parties.
Among those seen as possible supporters are:
YSR Congress Party (4 MPs): Expected to support the government, including on a possible Delimitation Bill.
DMK (8 MPs): May either support the legislation or abstain.
Biju Janata Dal (5 MPs): With women’s reservation being a long-standing demand, the party could support the legislation or choose to abstain.
Independent MP Parimal Nathwani: Expected to back the NDA.
One NCP (SP) MP: Likely to support the legislation.
Such support, or even strategic abstentions, could substantially lower the effective majority required during voting, improving the government’s chances of pushing through key constitutional measures.
The Rajya Sabha can have a maximum strength of 250 members, including 12 members nominated by the President of India. The remaining members are elected by the elected members of state legislative assemblies and the electoral colleges of Union Territories.
