Tamil Nadu woke up to political shockwaves on the morning of May 4.
For decades, the state had been dominated by two towering Dravidian forces—the DMK and the AIADMK.
Governments changed, alliances shifted,
leaders rose and fell, but the system remained largely the same.
And then came actor-turned-politician Vijay and his party, TVK. What many dismissed as star power without structure had suddenly transformed into the biggest political earthquake Tamil Nadu had witnessed in years.
The numbers flashing on television screens told the story. TVK had won 108 seats, just ten short of the majority mark. The DMK had suffered a massive setback. The AIADMK too had failed to recover lost ground.
The people of Tamil Nadu had clearly voted for change. It took some days, but Vijay’s TVK, with the help of Congress, the Left, the VCK, and the IUML, has now crossed the magic mark that he needed to become Tamil Nadu’s new Chief Minister. Vijay now has the support of 120 MLAs and is set to take the oath soon as the CM.
But what is the inside scoop on the “game of thrones” that has played out in Chennai all this week? Will Vijay be able to run a stable government while having a wafer-thin majority?
First, let’s talk about the backroom games.
In politics, elections are only half the battle. Government formation is the real war.
Inside the AIADMK camp, panic and opportunity arrived together. Senior leaders huddled late into the night on May 4 after the Tamil Nadu results showed a disaster for the NDA. Edappadi K Palaniswami—EPS—realised quickly that the old political order was collapsing.
If Vijay managed to become Chief Minister, Tamil Nadu politics could permanently move beyond the DMK-AIADMK era. And so, in one of the most dramatic twists imaginable, channels of communication quietly opened between bitter rivals.
EPS reached out to DMK leader Udhayanidhi Stalin. Privately, EPS is said to have expressed his sadness at the loss of MK Stalin from his seat.
For generations, DMK and AIADMK cadres had treated each other like sworn enemies. Entire political careers had been built attacking the other side. But now, whispers began emerging that sections within both camps were considering the unthinkable—joining hands to stop Vijay.
Even within the DMK, there was confusion. Some leaders reportedly felt supporting AIADMK from outside was strategically smarter than allowing Vijay to rise as a fresh political force. Others strongly opposed the idea, arguing that the party’s entire identity was built around defeating the AIADMK, not rescuing it.
As the celebrations erupted outside TVK offices, something very different was beginning to unfold behind closed doors in Chennai.
There was a notable meeting between superstar Rajinikanth and MK Stalin as well amid the uncertainty.
Meanwhile, another rebellion was quietly brewing inside AIADMK itself. Senior leader C Shanmugam was said to be exploring the possibility of taking a big group of MLAs towards Vijay’s camp instead. Suddenly, every MLA mattered. Every phone call mattered. Every hotel meeting mattered.
EPS went to a resort in Puducherry where 30-odd MLAs were holed up—and told them “good news” may be on the way soon. The effort was to avoid a split at any cost. That split in AIADMK, incidentally, is still not ruled out.
And then came the moment that confirmed just how serious the backroom negotiations had become.
Left leader MA Baby publicly claimed that the DMK had indeed explored the possibility of aligning with AIADMK and had even reached out to Left parties for support.
For many ordinary supporters watching from home, it was unbelievable. Leaders whose parties had fought bitterly for fifty years were now reportedly discussing cooperation—not for ideology, not for governance, but to stop a political outsider.
But politics thrives on surprises. And the biggest surprise came from the Congress party.
Just when speculation was growing about a possible anti-Vijay front, Congress announced support for TVK’s government formation bid. Its five MLAs would back Vijay. Soon after, Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge reportedly reached out to Left leaders as well, trying to swing their four MLAs in TVK’s favour.
Suddenly, the momentum shifted again.
TVK, sensing the changing winds, ignored overtures from the AIADMK camp and instead focused on securing support from VCK and smaller allies. The race for the magic number of 118 had become a nerve-wracking political thriller.
But while political parties scrambled for numbers, another powerful institution stepped into the spotlight—Lok Bhavan.
Governor Rajendra Vishwanath Arlekar had taken charge in Tamil Nadu barely two months ago. Now he found himself in the middle of a full-blown constitutional storm.
Vijay, buoyed by public support and media momentum, wanted to move fast. He made multiple trips to meet the Governor, pressing for an immediate oath-taking ceremony. TVK leaders argued that, as the single largest formation with support commitments, they had the moral and democratic right to form the government.
But the Governor chose caution.
Insisting on constitutional procedure, he asked Vijay to furnish formal letters of support proving he had the numbers required to command majority support in the Assembly. The delay immediately triggered political outrage.
Congress leaders accused the Governor of stalling Vijay intentionally. Opposition voices pointed towards Arlekar’s ideological background and questioned whether there was pressure to prevent Vijay from taking power quickly.
The Governor, however, maintained that his only concern was stability. His office insisted that Tamil Nadu needed a government that could survive a floor test and ensure administrative continuity, not political chaos.
And so, a larger constitutional debate erupted across the country.
Should a Governor assess majority support inside Lok Bhavan through letters and meetings? Or should the decision be left entirely to the Assembly floor?
But beyond the numbers and procedures, there was another question haunting Tamil Nadu politics.
Could the DMK and AIADMK really have worked together?
For older voters, the very thought felt surreal. This rivalry was not merely electoral—it was emotional and historical. It dated back to 1972 when MGR broke away from the DMK after differences with Karunanidhi and formed the AIADMK. Since then, the two parties had fought some of the fiercest political battles in Indian history.
There was the unforgettable 1989 Assembly confrontation where Jayalalithaa claimed she was humiliated and manhandled during chaos involving DMK legislators. There was the midnight arrest of Karunanidhi in 2001 under Jayalalithaa’s government—visuals that shocked the nation and symbolised the bitterness between the two camps.
And yet now, according to multiple political accounts, the same rivals were discussing cooperation.
TVK quickly seized the narrative. Vijay’s party accused both Dravidian giants of insulting the people’s mandate. According to TVK leaders, voters had consciously rejected both the DMK and AIADMK and chosen change. Any attempt by old rivals to unite against TVK was proof that the political establishment was afraid.
But even as Vijay moved closer to power, doubts remained.
Because forming a government is one thing. Sustaining it is another.
On Saturday, both the VCK and IUML extended support, taking the TVK numbers to 120.
If the numbers hold, Vijay’s alliance would just be above the majority mark of 118, not comfortably beyond danger, exactly on the edge.
Most TVK MLAs are first-time legislators. Vijay himself has no administrative experience. The Left parties are extending only outside support and will not join the government directly.
Congress, with five MLAs, will be part of the alliance. VCK has two MLAs. IUML has two. Every vote in the Assembly will matter.
And perhaps most importantly, the Left has historically been aligned with the DMK, which means even from the opposition benches, the DMK may continue to retain influence over the survival of the government.
That is why many believe a Vijay government, if formed, could remain under constant pressure—vulnerable to defections, bargaining, and political instability.
But perhaps that uncertainty is also what makes this moment historic.
Because for the first time in decades, Tamil Nadu is witnessing the collapse of political predictability. The old scripts no longer guarantee victory. The old rivalries no longer appear impossible to cross. And a state once dominated by two political titans suddenly finds itself staring at a completely new chapter.
Can a government with a wafer-thin majority last a 5-year term? Is a re-election imminent soon?
The question now is no longer whether Vijay has arrived in Tamil Nadu politics. The question is whether the system will allow him to stay.
