Elara Capital has pegged its Nifty target at 30,000 for the financial year ending March 2027, implying nearly a 17 per cent upside from current levels.
The brokerage expects market performance over the
next two years to be driven primarily by a recovery in corporate earnings rather than any major expansion in valuations.
After a weak start to FY26, Nifty earnings are projected to compound at 14–15 per cent through FY27 and FY28, Elara said.
Nifty earnings per share are estimated to rise from about Rs 1,096 in FY26 to Rs 1,281 in FY27 and Rs 1,463 in FY28, translating into earnings growth of nearly 17 per cent in FY27 and 14 per cent in FY28.
Elara expects the recovery to be supported by a softer earnings base along with favourable macro and policy triggers, including double-digit nominal GDP growth in FY27, a slower pace of fiscal consolidation combined with continued pro-consumption measures, and a benign interest-rate environment with supportive liquidity conditions.
FY26 earnings, however, are likely to remain under pressure due to pricing fatigue in consumer staples and healthcare, muted growth in IT services amid weak global demand, and regulated returns in utilities. As rate-cut transmission improves, consumption picks up and operating leverage comes into play, earnings growth is expected to re-accelerate meaningfully from FY27, the brokerage said.
Elara also highlighted a sharp improvement in the breadth of earnings growth. In FY26, only four sectors — consumer discretionary, telecom, energy and materials — are expected to record double-digit profit growth, pointing to a narrow, cyclical-led recovery.
By FY27, the number of sectors delivering double-digit profit growth is expected to rise to seven, with industrials (17 per cent), consumer staples (11 per cent) and financials (11 per cent) joining materials and consumer discretionary. This, Elara said, would indicate a more balanced and sustainable earnings recovery.
Separately, the number of public shareholders in the unlisted National Stock Exchange of India has risen to 183,621, an increase of 8,600 in a single quarter. Retail investors account for 171,563 shareholders at the end of 2025, up from 163,478 in September 2025, and now hold about 12.3 per cent of the exchange.
Shares of NSE have gained in the unlisted market after SEBI chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey indicated that a no-objection certificate to file for an IPO may be granted this month. NSE shares have climbed to around Rs 2,095 apiece from Rs 1,975 in just a week, according to data from UnlistedZone.
