Following weeks of slow progress over the country, the sub-par southwest monsoon is now set to keep Delhi waiting, as it misses its annual onset date with the national capital. The latest forecast suggests
its onset in Delhi may now happen next week. Normally, the seasonal rains begin in Delhi on June 27, a date that is significantly later than its historical average. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had recently revised its onset dates based on 1961-2019 average after observing that the monsoon was now taking a little longer to reach parts of Northwest India despite reaching Kerala on time.
According to the revised dates, it reaches Chandigarh by June 26, Delhi by June 27, Jammu by June 28, Jaipur by 1st July and covers the entire country by 8th July. However, this year, the monsoon is still trudging through peninsular and Central India, running way behind its normal schedule, raising concerns.
As of Friday, its northern limit passes through Surat (Gujarat), Indore (Madhya Pradesh), Daltonganj (Jharkhand) and Motihari (Bihar), and it is yet to enter Uttar Pradesh where farmers are awaiting the seasonal rains to sow the rain-fed Kharif crops. The weak monsoon has pushed the rain-deficit to nearly 41% for India this June, with IMD predicting below-normal rains till 2nd July.
So When Is Monsoon Arriving in Delhi?
According to the latest forecast by the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the monsoon is likely to advance into some parts of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand during the next 3-4 days, while also covering the rest of Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar. After 2nd July, it is expected to slowly move into remaining parts of Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, and Himachal Pradesh, and some parts of Jammu, Kashmir & Ladakh, Punjab, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, and Rajasthan.
The delay has caused the temperatures to spike across Northwest India, triggering heatwaves in Uttar Pradesh, and Bihar with mercury peaking at 43℃ in Prayagraj. The day temperatures are already settling at least 4-5℃ above-normal. The nights are getting warmer in Delhi too, with temperatures in the range of 27-29°C while it is 37-40°C during the day. However, the occasional thunderstorms have brought some temporary relief. According to IMD, the weather is likely to remain cloudy in Delhi over the next few days, with occasional gusty winds bringing some respite from searing temperatures.
The meteorologists have confirmed that El Niño conditions have formed over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and set to negatively impact the monsoon. “The atmosphere has responded to the warming sea surface temperatures, and forecasts indicate a further strengthening of El Niño conditions during the southwest Monsoon season from June to September,” said IMD, which had predicted a below-normal monsoon this year.
