As the temperatures continue to rise, the fear of a ‘Mega El Niño’ or ‘Super El Nino’, the terrible period of 1877-78, which one of the deadliest climate events in history, looms. What had happened almost
150 years ago? What is the phenomenon? What destruction can it cause? Should India worry? News18 explains. Researchers studying the Pacific Ocean say that sea surface temperatures are rising quickly, which is a main sign of El Niño forming. If the current trend continues, a ‘Super El Niño’ could develop in 2026. Combined with climate change, this event could push global temperatures to new record highs by 2027. About 150 years ago, that El Niño caused extreme heatwaves, long droughts, and famine in many parts of the world. Data shows that around 4 per cent of the world’s population at that time died, wiping out millions. Scientists are worried that history might repeat itself in 2026.
What is El Niño?
El Niñohappens when the water in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean gets unusually warm. This changes wind patterns, weakens the monsoon, and disrupts rainfall around the world. India, Australia, South Africa, and the Amazon Basin can face drought and extreme heat, while some parts of the US can get heavy rain and floods.
What is the weather forecast?
The latest monthly Global Seasonal Climate Update issued by the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has indicated a clear shift in the Equatorial Pacific, with rapidly rising sea-surface temperatures pointing towards a likely return of El Nino conditions as early as May-July 2026.
The report forecasted a “nearly global dominance of above-normal land surface temperatures” over the upcoming three-month period, along with notable regional variations in rainfall distribution across different parts of the world.
“After a period of neutral conditions at the start of the year, climate models are now strongly aligned, and there is high confidence in the onset of El Nino, followed by further intensification in the months that follow,” said Wilfran Moufouma Okia, Chief of Climate Prediction at WMO.
“Models indicate that this may be a strong event, but the so-called spring predictability barrier is a challenge for the certainty of forecasts at this time of year. Forecast confidence generally improves after April,” he added.
El Ninoand La Nina are opposite phases of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful climate patterns on Earth. These events significantly influence global weather systems, reshaping rainfall, drought conditions, and extreme weather events across continents.
Should India be worried?
This is especially worrying for India because it could threaten the monsoon and the economy. The country’s agriculture, water resources, and economy depend on the monsoon. In 2026, there could be long heatwaves and less than normal rainfall in north, central, and eastern India, which would hurt farming. Weaker monsoons can reduce crop yields. This can make food prices go up and increase inflation for ordinary people. Water shortages can happen as reservoirs and groundwater levels drop due to less rain. Rising heat makes things worse. Climate change is already raising temperatures, and El Niño could make it even worse.
What do experts say?
According to early signs from the Indian Meteorological Department, the monsoon could be about 92 per cent of the long-term average. Changing salt levels in the Pacific Ocean could increase this risk by another 20 per cent. Scientists say it is too early to call this a ‘Mega El Niño’, but the signs are strong enough that preparations should start now. Better water management, strong heat action plans, and support systems for farmers are the only ways to deal with this possible disaster.
What happened 150 years ago? The dark history of 1877-78
The lesson from 1877 is clear. When sea temperatures change dramatically, the whole world suffers. The El Niño of 1877-78 was one of the deadliest climate events on record, with about 4 per cent of the global population dying. This historic event caused severe heatwaves, droughts, and massive crop failures, leading to devastating famines in many parts of the world.
Today, climate researchers are watching for signs of a possible ‘Mega’ or ‘Super’ El Niño in 2026, which could match the intensity of that 19th-century disaster. Scientists say the main feature of the 1877-78 cycle was unusually warm temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific, which disrupted global weather systems and weakened key monsoon patterns. Recent model runs for 2026 show a rapid rise in sea surface temperatures, raising concerns that agriculture and water resources could face similar destruction by 2027.
How does El Niño threaten India’s monsoon?
The 2026 El Niño forecast is creating serious risks for India’s monsoon. It mainly weakens the air systems that bring moisture from the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal. Historically, such events have caused below-normal rainfall at least 50 per cent of the time, and during strong El Niños, there is up to a 60 per cent chance of drought in some part of the country.
IMD warning and economic impact
Less rainfall expected: For the 2026 season, the India Meteorological Department predicts the monsoon will be about 92 per cent of the long-term average, which is ‘below normal.’
Heatwave risk: A weak southwest monsoon could cause severeand long-lasting heatwaves in north, central, and eastern India, putting pressure on agriculture and reducing water resources.
Pacific Ocean salinity: Scientists have noted that higher salt levels in the Pacific could make these El Niño events up to 20 per cent stronger, doubling the chances of extreme climate events.
Economic and social impact: About 70 per cent of the rain needed for farming and filling reservoirs comes from the monsoon. Besides less rain, the current warming trend and signs of a ‘Super’ El Niño could push global temperatures to record highs by 2027, putting pressure on India’s health and economic systems.
