September Weather Predictions: India’s monsoon may be heading towards a disappointing finish, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting below-normal rainfall across the country in September,
the final month of the four-month rainy season.
The forecast could push the overall monsoon rainfall deficit further, with the country already recording a 14% shortfall in cumulative rainfall between June 1 and August 31. The IMD had earlier flagged the possible impact of El Niño on the monsoon season.
August, meanwhile, was the warmest August India has recorded since 1901, with the country’s mean temperature touching 28.010°C. The month also saw rainfall remain more than 16% below normal nationally, despite heavy rains in parts of the country.
What IMD’s September Forecast Says?
IMD chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said, “Spatially, many parts of the country are likely to receive below-normal rainfall.” However, some parts of northwest, northeast, east, east-central and southeast peninsular India are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall, he added.
The outlook comes after a particularly uneven monsoon. June began with a rainfall deficit of as much as 35%, while July saw rainfall in the normal range. By the end of August, however, the cumulative deficit stood at 14%. Of the 741 districts assessed for monsoon rainfall distribution, 312- or 42%- had received below-normal rainfall by August 31. Another 38 districts, or 5%, recorded large deficient rainfall.
Could September Rains Affect Kharif Crops?
The below-normal rainfall forecast could add pressure to the farm sector, particularly if rainfall remains inadequate for standing crops. Sowing of most kharif crops is now almost complete but the overall acreage is already around 2% lower than during the corresponding period last year. A dry September could increase farmers’ input costs as they may have to rely more heavily on irrigation to protect standing crops.
Will El Nino Spoil Monsoon Finale?
The IMD said “strong El Niño conditions” are currently prevailing over the equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperatures remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. El Niño is generally associated with weaker monsoon conditions in India, raising concerns that its strengthening could weigh on rainfall during the final month of the season.
Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean is currently experiencing neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions, which are expected to persist through September. Unlike a positive IOD, which can support increased rainfall over India, neutral conditions are unlikely to provide a significant boost to monsoon activity.
August’s heat added another unwelcome record to the season. South peninsular India experienced its second-warmest August since 1901, while east and northeast India recorded their third-warmest August and northwest India its fifth-warmest August in 126 years.
