As the war in Ukraine enters its fourth year, US President Donald Trump heads into his first meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin in six years facing a stark divide in assessments. Inside the White
House, there is hope that Putin may have changed enough to make a peace deal possible. But the US intelligence community remains convinced that the Kremlin’s war aims are largely the same, and warns that any deal on Putin’s terms could lock in Russian gains and set the stage for renewed aggression.
According to a CNN report citing US and European officials, Trump’s questions to aides and allied leaders in recent months — “What’s changed about Putin?” — reflect both his growing frustration with Moscow and a belief that the upcoming Alaska summit on Friday could produce an opening.
From Warm Rapport To Rising Frustration
Trump has often highlighted his “very good relationship” with Putin during his first term. But in recent months, his private language about the Russian leader has shifted sharply. People familiar with internal discussions told CNN that Trump has grown impatient with Moscow’s rejection of ceasefire proposals and with what his envoy, Steve Witkoff, described as the Kremlin “tapping us along.”
The change has been visible in closed-door meetings, where, according to sources cited by the outlet, Trump began using frequent expletives when referring to Putin. One person present at a meeting between Trump and a European leader told CNN, “His anger was palpable.”
White House Hopes Vs Intelligence Warnings
Inside the administration, there are some signs of optimism. Sources told CNN that some officials believe Putin’s short-term objectives may have shifted, for instance, an openness to consolidating current territorial gains and prioritising economic deals. This underpins Trump’s hope that the Alaska summit could lead to progress.
But US intelligence agencies, CNN reported, see the situation very differently. They assess that Putin:
- Still aims to keep Ukraine out of NATO
- Will not accept foreign peacekeepers
- Would likely use any ceasefire to regroup and potentially attempt another push for Kyiv
One person familiar with recent assessments told CNN: “Putin thinks he is winning, so he has no reason to bend. He might as well pocket the wins he has now… and then make another run to take more later.”
Fears Of A ‘Submission’ Deal
The planned summit, on American soil and without Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy present, has prompted concern among some European and Ukrainian officials. A European diplomat told CNN: “Russia is offering to stop the war if they get everything they have always wanted, including their most maximalist demands… that would not be a deal, it would be a submission.”
Others, however, believe Trump’s personal style and recent policy shifts might position him to achieve what other leaders have not. On Wednesday, Trump warned that Russia would face “very severe consequences” if he concluded Putin was not serious about ending the war, though he did not specify what those would be; he has previously threatened tougher economic sanctions or tariffs.
Putin: A ‘Hard Target’ For US Intelligence
Decoding Putin’s intentions has long been a challenge. A former KGB officer with a small circle of trusted advisers, the Russian leader is considered by US agencies to be a “hard target”, difficult to penetrate through traditional intelligence gathering.
CNN noted that while the US has at times gained advance insight into Putin’s plans, such as the decision to invade Ukraine in 2022, his daily decision-making remains opaque. During the pandemic, Putin’s prolonged isolation further narrowed his contacts, with hardliners gaining influence as technocrats lost access.
Trump’s Confidence In A Quick Read
Despite past scepticism of US intelligence assessments on Russia, Trump is entering the Alaska summit convinced that personal rapport and instinct can deliver results. He said on Tuesday he would know “probably in the first two minutes” whether Putin is open to a deal, describing the encounter as a “feel-out” session rather than a formal negotiation
European officials told CNN this self-assured approach reflects not only Trump’s long-held belief in personal diplomacy but also a noticeable shift in his outlook since returning to the White House. “Europeans say the one who changed is Trump… now Europeans say he finally gets it that Putin is a murderous leader,” one US official said.
They argue months of frustration over stalled talks and Russia’s battlefield escalation have sharpened Trump’s tone, without dulling his belief that a personal read on Putin could unlock progress.
The Pandemic And Putin’s Behaviour
According to CNN, some of Trump’s advisers have suggested that Putin’s behaviour since their last meeting in 2019 may have been shaped by the pandemic, when he rarely left his residence outside Moscow and required visitors to undergo lengthy quarantines. US intelligence reports from early 2022 described his behaviour then as “highly concerning and unpredictable.”
Ukrainian assessments have sometimes gone further, with Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, the country’s military intelligence chief, claiming Putin uses body doubles and questioning whether the “real Putin” is still alive, assertions not shared by US and European intelligence.
Determined To Win
Officials told CNN they believe Putin’s determination to control Ukraine has only intensified. Angela Stent, a former US national intelligence officer for Russia, said: “By now he believes that if Russia doesn’t win this war, he won’t be in office anymore… I think the fundamental beliefs probably haven’t changed.”
Zelenskyy this week warned that Putin would try to deceive Trump, saying his intelligence services report that Moscow is “definitely not preparing for a ceasefire or an end to the war.”
While Trump has reassured European leaders that Ukrainian territory is not for him to negotiate, the administration’s focus on territorial exchange suggests some may underestimate the ideological nature of Putin’s ambitions. Former US ambassador to Russia Michael McFaul told CNN: “He is not a transactional leader… a person with that mindset is hard to negotiate with.”
Bottom Line
Trump approaches the Alaska summit frustrated with Putin, yet hopeful for a breakthrough. US intelligence agencies, however, see little sign the Kremlin’s long-standing objectives have shifted, and warn that any premature deal could end up serving Moscow’s interests more than Washington’s or Kyiv’s.
