After talks with the United States failed and US President Donald Trump threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, Iran responded with an unusual message. Instead of a standard political statement, it used
a mathematical-style formula to send a warning.
What does the formula mean?
Iran’s parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf used the expression “ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O)” to make his point.
In simple terms, the formula explains how oil prices react to a blockade. Here, “O” refers to oil prices, and “BSOH” stands for a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. The first part means that if the blockade increases, oil prices will rise.
The second part shows that the impact does not stop there. The effect grows stronger over time. A first rise in prices is followed by a second, even bigger increase. This happens because of panic, supply disruptions, higher shipping costs and market reactions.
O = oil price or oil shock.
BSOH = blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
ΔOBSOH>0ΔOBSOH>0 = the blockade increases oil prices.
f(f(O))>f(O)f(f(O))>f(O) = the second-round effect is worse than the first-round effect.
So, in simple words, the Hormuz blockade can trigger a first oil-price jump, then a second, larger jump through panic, supply disruption, shipping costs and next market reactions.
The message behind the formula is that a blockade would not cause a simple, steady rise in oil prices. Instead, it would trigger a chain reaction. One shock pushes prices up, and then that shock creates further pressure, leading to an even sharper rise.
In short, Iran is saying that the damage would grow faster with each step, rather than increase gradually.
What Ghalibaf said?
To underline his point, Ghalibaf shared an image showing petrol prices near the White House. He warned that Americans would soon miss current fuel prices if the blockade is enforced.
In a post on X, he wrote that people should “enjoy the current pump figures”, adding that prices could soon reach or exceed the $4–$5 range. The formula was shared alongside this message to explain how quickly prices could rise.
Enjoy the current pump figures. With the so-called ‘blockade’, Soon you’ll be nostalgic for $4–$5 gas.
ΔO_BSOH>0 ⇒ f(f(O))>f(O) pic.twitter.com/rVxlC6vFWG
— محمدباقر قالیباف | MB Ghalibaf (@mb_ghalibaf) April 12, 2026
US plans for Hormuz blockade
The warning came after Trump announced that the US Navy would begin blocking ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. This decision followed the collapse of ceasefire talks between Washington and Tehran in Pakistan.
The United States Central Command said the blockade would start on Monday at 10 am EDT, or 5.30 p.m. in Iran. It would apply to all vessels entering or leaving Iranian ports and coastal areas, including those in the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
US officials said the blockade would be enforced on ships of all nations. However, vessels travelling between non-Iranian ports would still be allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. This means some commercial movement would continue, even as restrictions tighten.
Through this formula, Iran is warning that restricting oil supply will push prices higher, and the impact will not be limited to a single rise. Instead, the effect will build over time, increasing pressure on markets and consumers.
