Even after six weeks of intense airstrikes by the US and Israel, Western military intelligence assessments said Iran’s military was able to mitigate the impact of US-Israeli strikes on its weapons arsenal
and leadership and still retains the ability to respond if the ceasefire fails.
For weeks, Trump has been claiming that Iran’s missile capabilities have been obliterated and the United States have “already met and exceeded all military objectives”, while announcing the two-week ceasefire, which opened a narrow window for talks to end a conflict that has killed more than 4,000 people across West Asia.
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While Iran sustained massive damage to its infrastructure and several senior leaders were killed, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the operational planning undertaken by Tehran in anticipation of the conflict was effective in preventing the destruction of its missile and drone capabilities as well as maximising the impact of its military response, people familiar with the assessments told Bloomberg.
Iran’s effective military planning has also fueled speculation that it could leverage the current ceasefire to ready itself for a possible return to conflict. The first round of negotiations, held last week in Islamabad under Pakistani mediation, ended without a breakthrough or formal understanding between the two sides.
Iran Still Has Thousands Of Missiles
Since the US and Israel launched the war on February 28, it has killed at least 3,000 people in Iran. Despite claims by Israel and the US of having depleted Iran’s military capabilities, the intelligence assessments showed that plans put in place by Tehran to replace senior military leaders swiftly managed to minimise disruption to its command structures that were targeted in the airstrikes.
The US Defence Intelligence Agency said in a global assessment provided to Congress on Thursday that Iran “retains thousands of missiles and one-way attack UAVs that can threaten US and partner forces throughout the region, despite degradations to its capabilities from both attrition and expenditure.”
It also stressed that the Iranian regime remained stable and unified even after the deaths of Ali Khamenei and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Larijani. Iran’s leadership devised plans to de-centralise decision-making across the country after last year’s 12-day war with Israel.
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It also appears that Iran retains thousands of long-range missiles and drones, according to assessments provided by European and Gulf officials. While some officials say the US may need two or three more weeks of strikes to completely degrade Iranian capabilities, others say it could take longer and Iran’s industrial and nuclear capabilities may still survive.
In the wake of the US-Israeli campaign, Iran has dispersed its missile launchers and drone infrastructure across the country and also shifted launchers around to different sites, making it harder for the US to locate and eliminate them.
This picture was contrary to claims made by Trump and US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth. In June last year, Trump said the US had “obliterated” Iranian nuclear facilities in strikes, while Hegseth said this month that Iran’s command and control “is so decimated they can’t really talk and coordinate.”
Despite the planning, Iran is taking a massive economic hit from the attacks, which could intensify if the war continues, according to some officials. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told reporters at a White House briefing on Wednesday that the US plans to ramp up economic pain on Iran, and said the new moves will be the “financial equivalent” of a bombing campaign.
