Since the start of 2025, gold and silver prices have been hitting record highs, making jewellery unaffordable for many. On October 15, 22K gold sold at Rs 11,860 per gram and a sovereign at Rs 94,880,
while silver reached Rs 207 per gram (Rs 2,07,000 per kg).
Experts, however, predict that there could be a significant drop in prices over the next few days or weeks, suggesting this might be the final stage of the current price surge.
According to PACE 360 Co-founder and Chief Global Strategist Amit Goyal, gold prices are expected to fall by 30 to 35%, which would bring the price down to approximately Rs. 77,701. Silver prices are anticipated to drop by 50%, lowering the price to around Rs. 77,450.
Historically, gold prices have fallen by 45% following major fluctuations in 2007, 2008, and 2011. According to Goyal, once gold falls to $2,600–$2,700, it would be a safe investment again, potentially becoming the best investment option worldwide. However, silver buyers should remain cautious as a global recession could have long-term impacts.
Goyal also commented on the current fluctuations in gold and silver prices, stating that this rise is unlikely to last long. He anticipates a change in the pricing system, leading to a major price reduction, and advises investors to be prepared for this decline.
How Much Has Silver Risen?
In the Delhi bullion market on Wednesday (October 15), the price of gold rose by Rs 1,000 to an all-time high of Rs 131,800 per 10 grams.
Meanwhile, silver prices fell by Rs 3,000 from the record level to Rs 182,000 per kilogram (including all taxes). On Tuesday, silver had reached a new peak of Rs 185,000 per kilogram. Notably, silver prices have doubled in the last ten months, yielding 37% more returns compared to gold.
Market experts attribute the sharp rise in silver prices to several factors and remain optimistic about its long-term prospects, though they caution about potential short-term corrections.
Reasons For The Rise In Silver
There are three primary reasons behind the surge in silver prices: heavy demand during the festive season, increasing industrial demand, and a shortage in supply.
India, one of the largest consumers of silver globally, sees a spike in silver purchases during auspicious occasions like Diwali-Dhanteras. Additionally, silver’s use in solar factories, the AI industry, and electric vehicles has grown rapidly, further boosting demand.
However, the supply of silver has not kept pace with this increased demand. Environmental regulations and mine closures in some countries have reduced planned mining activities.
Notably, 70% of silver is produced as a by-product during the mining of other metals like copper and zinc. Therefore, until copper mining increases, the supply of silver remains constrained.
Is It Right To Buy Silver Now?
Market experts advise caution, suggesting that aggressive buying should be avoided due to the record-high prices of silver. While the long-term outlook remains positive, new purchases should be approached with caution considering the short-term risks.
Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Commodity, notes that silver prices have already doubled, making aggressive buying inadvisable at this stage. He predicts further growth in silver compared to gold in the long term.
Ajay Kedia had earlier forecasted a rise in silver by the end of 2024 and recommended it as a top investment choice for the first half of 2025.
Anuj Gupta, Head (Commodity and Currency) at HDFC Securities, believes that the upward trend in silver prices will continue with fluctuations and advises buying on dips.
