Iran’s Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is facing renewed health concerns, with reports claiming that his condition has become critical. His health has remained under intense scrutiny since he succeeded
his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in US-Israeli strikes at the beginning of the West Asia conflict.
Israeli outlet Channel 14 has reported that Mojtaba Khamenei’s condition is “extremely critical”, while other reports have suggested that his death could be imminent. However, these claims have not been independently verified, and there has been no confirmed official announcement regarding his condition.
Mojtaba has remained largely out of public view since taking over as Iran’s Supreme Leader. His absence has fuelled speculation about his health and raised questions about what could happen if he were to die or become unable to perform his duties.
So, what happens to Iran’s leadership if Mojtaba Khamenei can no longer serve as Supreme Leader?
What happens if Iran’s Supreme Leader dies or becomes incapacitated?
Iran’s Constitution lays down a procedure for dealing with a vacancy in the office of Supreme Leader.
Under Article 111, if the Supreme Leader dies, resigns, is removed or becomes temporarily unable to perform his duties, a three-member Interim Leadership Council assumes his responsibilities until a new leader is appointed.
The council comprises:
- The President of Iran, currently Masoud Pezeshkian
- The Head of the Judiciary, currently Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei
- A religious jurist from the Guardian Council, selected through the process specified in Article 111
- The council temporarily exercises the powers of the Supreme Leader while the succession process gets underway.
Who Chooses Iran’s Next Supreme Leader?
The 88-member Assembly of Experts is constitutionally responsible for selecting the Supreme Leader.
If the position becomes vacant, the Assembly is required to move as quickly as possible to appoint a replacement. The process is particularly significant because the Supreme Leader holds enormous authority over Iran’s military, judiciary, foreign policy and other key state institutions.
Who Could Emerge As A contender?
Several senior clerics and political figures have previously been discussed as potential candidates for Iran’s top leadership position.
Ayatollah Alireza Arafi is one of the prominent names. He is a senior cleric, a member of the Guardian Council and a senior figure in Iran’s seminary establishment. He also served on the interim leadership council following Ali Khamenei’s death.
Ayatollah Hashem Hosseini Bushehri is another senior cleric with strong links to Iran’s religious establishment in Qom. He has held senior positions within the Assembly of Experts and the clerical establishment.
Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei, Iran’s judiciary chief, is another powerful establishment figure who has been identified as a potential contender. He has a long history in Iran’s judiciary and security apparatus and is regarded as a hardline figure.
Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Islamic Republic founder Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, has also been mentioned in discussions over potential successors. His political positioning, however, differs from that of many hardline figures within Iran’s ruling establishment.
Could Iran Opt For Collective Leadership?
Iran’s constitutional framework also allows for the possibility of collective leadership under certain circumstances.
If the Assembly of Experts is unable to settle on a single individual, a leadership council could potentially emerge as an alternative arrangement. Such a development would represent a major departure from the traditional model in which one Supreme Leader holds the country’s highest political and religious authority.
Could IRGC Gain Greater Power?
A sudden leadership vacuum could also strengthen the influence of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), one of Iran’s most powerful military and political institutions.
The IRGC already has significant influence over Iran’s security apparatus, military operations and economy. In a period of uncertainty, it could play an increasingly important role in determining the country’s political direction and backing a successor acceptable to the security establishment.
However, the extent of any potential IRGC role would depend heavily on the circumstances surrounding a leadership transition and the balance of power among Iran’s clerical, political and military institutions.
