A prediction market has priced a high probability that the US Supreme Court will strike down President Donald Trump’s tariffs, underscoring heightened uncertainty ahead of the court’s expected ruling.
According to Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform, traders on Tuesday assigned a 73 percent chance that the Supreme Court will declare Trump’s tariffs illegal. The estimate reflects market sentiment among participants wagering on the outcome rather than any judicial assessment.
The court is weighing a challenge to the Trump administration’s use of emergency powers to impose sweeping country-specific tariffs. At issue is whether the administration exceeded its authority under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and whether importers would be entitled to refunds if the tariffs are overturned.
Polymarket allows users to bet on real-world outcomes, with odds shifting based on trading activity. While such markets have grown in visibility, analysts caution that they capture expectations and risk appetite — not legal expertise or inside knowledge of court deliberations.
Trump has dismissed criticism of his tariff policy, accusing opponents of acting in China’s interests and warning he would pursue alternative measures if the Supreme Court rules against him. “We’ll explore other options if the tariffs case is lost,” he said earlier this week.
BREAKING: 73% chance the Supreme Court declares Trump's tariffs illegal tomorrow. pic.twitter.com/NUmqrpYkKq
— Polymarket (@Polymarket) January 13, 2026
The outcome of the case carries significant economic implications. Trump has pointed to tariffs as a major revenue source, with US Treasury data showing customs duties surged sharply in the latest quarter, contributing to a narrower budget deficit.
Since returning to the White House last January, President Donald Trump has rolled out wide-ranging duties impacting virtually every US trading partner.
Besides touting the duties as leverage in trade talks with other countries, Trump has also pointed to tariff incomes as a way to reduce the government’s deficits.
Boosts in tax and tariff revenue narrowed the US budget deficit in the October–December period compared to a year earlier, according to data released by the Department of the Treasury on Tuesday.
The deficit fell 15 percent, shrinking from $711 billion in the previous fiscal year to $602 billion. Overall revenue rose 13 percent to a record $1.2 trillion, while spending increased two percent to $1.8 trillion, also a record, a senior Treasury official said.
Customs duties surged sharply during the period, jumping from $23 billion a year earlier to $94 billion in the first three months of the current fiscal year. Treasury officials said the rise was driven primarily by higher tariffs.
