As India awaits the arrival of monsoon, an unusual twist has turned the tide. Just weeks ago, weather models suggested that the monsoon would arrive in Kerala earlier than normal, possibly by May 26. Instead,
India is now witnessing a delayed onset, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) waiting for all the required atmospheric conditions to fall into place before officially declaring the monsoon’s arrival.
What makes this delay particularly intriguing is that Kerala has already received rainfall. Yet the monsoon has not been declared. The reason lies in a rare combination of weather systems stretching thousands of kilometres across the Indian Ocean and Pacific Ocean.
Rain Alone Doesn’t Mean Monsoon
Many people assume the monsoon begins as soon as Kerala receives heavy rain. Meteorologists see it differently.
The IMD requires three key conditions before declaring the onset of the southwest monsoon: widespread rainfall over designated stations, sufficiently strong low-level and upper-level winds, and sustained cloud activity over the region. This year, rain arrived, but the accompanying wind patterns and cloud structures remained incomplete.
Why Is Monsoon Delayed?
The biggest factor behind the delay has been weaker-than-usual cross-equatorial winds. Every year, the southwest monsoon is powered by strong winds that travel from the southern hemisphere across the equator into the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal before sweeping over India. These moisture-laden winds are the lifeblood of the monsoon.
This year, those winds have been unusually sluggish. Meteorologists say the atmospheric circulation needed to drive moisture towards Kerala failed to strengthen on schedule, delaying the establishment of a full-fledged monsoon system.
A Typhoon Thousands of Kilometres Away Played a Role
One of the most unusual aspects of this year’s delay is that the problem may have originated far from India.
Weather experts have pointed to a developing typhoon in the western Pacific Ocean. Such powerful systems can alter atmospheric circulation over a vast area, effectively pulling moisture and wind energy away from the Indian Ocean region.
As a result, moisture that would normally help fuel the monsoon over India was diverted elsewhere, weakening the monsoon flow over the Arabian Sea.
It is a reminder that the Indian monsoon is not merely an Indian phenomenon, but is part of a giant interconnected atmospheric machine spanning half the globe.
Cyclonic Circulation Over Bay Of Bengal
Another disruptive element emerged closer to home. A cyclonic circulation over the Bay of Bengal and nearby ocean regions interfered with the large-scale wind patterns that typically help the monsoon advance into Kerala. Instead of strengthening the monsoon current, these weather disturbances disrupted its organisation and slowed its progress.
The El Nino Factor
Adding to meteorologists’ concerns is the gradual emergence of El Nino conditions in the Pacific Ocean. The IMD has already warned that neutral conditions are transitioning towards El Nino, a climate pattern historically associated with weaker monsoons and below-normal rainfall over India. While El Nino is not solely responsible for the delayed onset, it is influencing the broader atmospheric environment in which the monsoon is developing.
The weather office has projected below-normal rainfall for the 2026 monsoon season, making the delayed start even more closely watched by farmers, policymakers and markets.
Monsoon Literally Waiting Off Kerala’s Coast
Perhaps the strangest detail of all is that the monsoon has not been far away. According to weather assessments, the monsoon system has at times been positioned only a few dozen kilometres from the Kerala coast but lacked the atmospheric support needed to push inland decisively. The result has been a frustrating waiting game, with forecasts repeatedly shifting from May 26 to May 28, then June 1, and now into the first week of June.
When Will Monsoon Arrive In Kerala?
The good news is that meteorologists expect the missing ingredients to finally come together. Stronger winds and more organised cloud activity are forecast to develop around June 4-6, creating conditions favourable for the monsoon’s official onset over Kerala.
The delay is unlikely to be historically significant in terms of days. But the chain of events behind it with a combination of weak cross-equatorial winds, a distant Pacific typhoon, disruptive cyclonic circulations and emerging El Nino conditions, makes 2026 one of the more unusual monsoon onset stories in recent years.
