The United States, Ukraine and Russia are set to hold two days of US-mediated talks in Abu Dhabi on Tuesday, November 11 with security guarantees for Ukraine expected to dominate the discussions. While
the broader objective is to find a framework to end the war, a comprehensive peace agreement is unlikely, with major disagreements over territory and Ukraine’s future security arrangements still unresolved.
The meetings come as the conflict approaches its fifth year and mark the first trilateral negotiating session involving the three countries since February. The talks are expected to focus on possible de-escalation measures, humanitarian arrangements and the conditions required for a lasting settlement.
Analysts and officials cited ahead of the meetings expect limited or technical progress rather than a major breakthrough.
Who Is Attending The Abu Dhabi Talks?
US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will represent Washington at the negotiations. Ukraine’s delegation will be led by Rustem Umerov, chief of the country’s Foreign Intelligence Service.
European representatives are also expected to participate or coordinate with the discussions. Their involvement reflects concerns among European countries about any security arrangements that could shape the future of the continent.
Security Guarantees To Dominate Discussions
Security guarantees are expected to be the central issue during the two-day meeting. Ukraine wants credible assurances that would protect it against another Russian invasion.
Russia, meanwhile, is seeking arrangements that restrict NATO’s role and address its own security concerns. The main challenge will be finding a framework that can deter future Russian aggression while remaining acceptable to Moscow.
No details or parameters of a possible security guarantee have been publicly announced so far.
Black Sea Ceasefire, Energy Strikes On Agenda
The discussions could also cover limited de-escalation measures, including possible arrangements for a ceasefire in the Black Sea and restrictions on attacks targeting energy infrastructure.
However, no terms have been publicly agreed upon. The negotiators may also explore another prisoner exchange and other humanitarian steps.
Such measures could offer limited progress even if the countries fail to reach an agreement on ending the war.
Why A Major Peace Deal Is Unlikely
The broader objective of the negotiations is to establish a framework for ending the fighting. However, disagreements over territory and Ukraine’s future security alignment remain major obstacles.
Russia’s position on territorial issues and Ukraine’s insistence on protecting its sovereignty make any compromise politically difficult. Neither side appears prepared to make public concessions on these matters.
The talks are therefore unlikely to produce a comprehensive peace agreement. Possible outcomes could instead include an agreement to continue discussions on a Black Sea ceasefire, restraint on attacks against energy infrastructure, prisoner exchanges or further rounds of negotiations.
Why These Talks Matter
The meeting comes after earlier rounds of negotiations failed to deliver visible progress. It also takes place amid continued long-range strikes by both sides, highlighting how military pressure and diplomatic efforts are continuing simultaneously.
The key measure of success will be whether the three countries can turn broad proposals into practical and verifiable steps, particularly on security guarantees and de-escalation.
Rather than a final peace deal, even limited agreements on humanitarian measures or reducing attacks could mark progress in the Abu Dhabi discussions.
