The Indian stock market has navigated a period of heightened volatility over the past year, shaped by persistent geopolitical tensions, global uncertainties, and evolving domestic macroeconomic conditions.
As India approaches Akshaya Tritiya on Sunday, a comparison of asset class performance shows that equities have largely underperformed the safe-haven appeal of gold.
Gold has emerged as a clear outperformer since Akshaya Tritiya 2025, supported by sustained central bank and investor demand amid ongoing macro and geopolitical risks, reinforcing its status as a preferred safe-haven asset.
In contrast, the benchmark Nifty 50 has remained largely muted. While gold has delivered returns of about 62% since April 30, 2025, the Nifty 50 has gained just 0.7% over the same period.
The divergence is striking, with only two Nifty 50 constituents outperforming gold — highlighting a clear shift in investor preference towards safety amid global uncertainty.
The two stocks that beat gold returns are Shriram Finance and Hindalco Industries.
Shriram Finance shares have rallied nearly 69%, while Hindalco Industries has gained 67.7%, both surpassing gold’s 62% rise, according to Mint data.
Among other major gainers, Tata Steel rose 53.8% and Bharat Electronics climbed 46%, though both fell short of gold’s performance.
Shriram Finance share price
Shriram Finance shares are up around 1% year-to-date, while gaining 52% over the past six months. The stock has delivered multibagger returns of 115% in two years and 275% over five years.
Technically, the stock has surged 19% in just four sessions, forming a strong upward move followed by a six-session flag consolidation. This pattern suggests a pause without aggressive profit booking, indicating underlying strength.
According to Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments, a breakout above Rs 1,040 could trigger the next leg of the rally towards Rs 1,085. The lower end of the flag acts as immediate support, and a breakdown below it could signal short-term exhaustion.
Hindalco share price
Hindalco Industries shares have risen 15% year-to-date and gained 34% over the past six months. The stock is up 70% in two years and has delivered multibagger returns of 179% over five years.
On the charts, the stock has formed a 50-day flat base and recently attempted a breakout above Rs 1,010, indicating a potential continuation pattern.
However, the move has lacked strong volume support, raising the possibility of a false breakout. Jain noted that a sustained move above Rs 1,010 with volume confirmation could drive the stock towards Rs 1,100, while failure to hold above this level may signal near-term weakness.
Gold outlook
Analysts expect gold to maintain a positive bias in 2026, supported by either a stagflationary environment or softer crude oil prices.
Deveya Gaglani, Senior Research Analyst – Commodities at Axis Securities, said gold could retest the $5,300–$5,500 range over the next year, implying a potential upside of 10–15% from current levels.
In the domestic market, gold prices are expected to reach between Rs 1,70,000 and Rs 1,85,000 over the same period.
