New Delhi, Jan 18 (PTI) Gold price is expected to maintain its upward momentum in the coming week, driven by safe-haven demand and expectations of policy easing by the US Federal Reserve, while silver
may witness consolidation after a stellar rally, according to analysts.
Investors’ attention will turn to a string of key global macroeconomic data, including inflation figures from major economies, as well as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, GDP growth, PMI readings and jobless claims, which will provide fresh cues on the Fed’s policy outlook, they said.
“The focus will be on the upcoming economic numbers from China – crucial from an industrial metals perspective. Among other developments, US President Donald Trump’s speech at the World Economic Forum and the Supreme Court judgement on trade will be most important to watch,” Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG – Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, said.
On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), the yellow metal futures climbed Rs 3,698, or 2.7 per cent, over the past week. It had increased to hit a record of Rs 1,43,590 per 10 grams on Wednesday.
“Gold prices on the domestic market were up 2.7 per cent for the week, partly supported by a weaker rupee against the dollar. Later, the yellow metal pared some gains on Friday amid profit-booking and long-liquidation, as the risk premium eased following the US President’s softer tone on Iran, better-than-expected jobs data, and a firm dollar,” Mer said.
In the international market, gold futures on the Comex gained USD 94.5, or 2.09 per cent, last week. It had closed at USD 4,595.4 per ounce on Friday, after hitting a record of USD 4,650.50 per ounce earlier in the week.
“Gold prices rose by more than 2 per cent over the week amid geopolitical risk coming out of Iran, driving strong investor interest in safe haven assets. Expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Fed, a weaker dollar, lower treasury yields and continued central bank buying remain supportive for the yellow metal,” Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research, Non-Agri Commodities and Currencies, Angel One, said.
Mallya projected that gold prices could move higher towards the Rs 1,46,000 per 10 grams mark on the MCX and around USD 4,750 per ounce level in the global markets in the coming week.
Meanwhile, silver rallied by nearly 14 per cent, or Rs 35,037, during the week, on the MCX. It had surged to hit a record of Rs 2,92,960 per kilogram.
On the global front, the white metal gained USD 9.2, or 11.6 per cent, to close at USD 88.53 per ounce, after touching a lifetime high of USD 93.75 last week.
“Silver’s parabolic rally continued as prices gained more than 11.5 per cent for the week, as some profit-booking and consolidation were seen in the last couple of trading sessions, following reports that the Trump administration won’t be levying tariffs on critical miners for now,” Mer said.
Silver is expected to remain buoyant; however, its sharp rally could face a correction as it nears the USD 100 per ounce mark. “We expect a big corrective move either before or after the USD 100 is breached,” he added.
On the outlook, Vijay Kuppa, CEO, InCred Money, said gold and silver continued to stay structurally positive, even as periods of volatility are likely in the near term.
“Central banks are adding gold to their reserves, while ETF inflows are absorbing a significant portion of supply. Geopolitical tensions and persistent macroeconomic uncertainty reinforce the role of holding precious metals as portfolio hedges,” he said.
Kuppa added that silver’s dual role as a precious and industrial metal, driven by demand from technology, renewable energy and electrification, continues to create a supportive long-term setup.
“After an extended rally, phases of consolidation and price corrections are normal. Short-term pullbacks do not necessarily change the broader trend and are often part of the price-discovery process,” he said. PTI HG HG BAL BAL
