The world is entering a heightened period of extreme-weather risk as El Niño strengthens rapidly and is expected to become a very strong event later this year, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO)
has warned.
The climate pattern is forecast to persist into early 2027
, bringing major shifts in rainfall and temperature patterns and raising the likelihood of extreme heat, drought and flooding in different parts of the world.UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the situation in stark terms, warning that the planet is in an “extreme weather” danger zone as ocean temperatures continue to rise.
El Niño Is Strengthening Fast
El Niño is driven by unusually warm sea-surface temperatures across the central and eastern tropical Pacific. Current observations show the warming is becoming exceptionally pronounced.
The Niño 3.4 index, a key measure used to track El Niño, averaged about 2°C above normal in July. Weekly readings later climbed to roughly 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average.
The heat is not confined to the ocean surface. In parts of the tropical Pacific, temperatures below the surface were more than 8°C above normal during July and early August, providing a substantial reservoir of heat that could help drive further strengthening.
WMO forecasts give an almost 100% likelihood that El Niño will continue through February 2027, with the event expected to peak towards the end of 2026.
Why the Warning Matters
A very strong El Niño can alter atmospheric circulation and redistribute rainfall and heat across vast areas.
Some regions could face prolonged dry conditions and heightened wildfire and water-security risks, while others may experience heavier rainfall and flooding. Above-normal temperatures are also expected across much of the world’s land areas during the coming months.
For India, the strengthening El Niño could put additional pressure on the southwest monsoon, water supplies and agriculture. El Niño is historically associated with weaker or more erratic monsoon rainfall, and the India Meteorological Department has warned that the phenomenon could strengthen further during the October–December period. India has already recorded a significant rainfall shortfall in August, while September rainfall is forecast to remain below normal.
However, El Niño does not produce identical effects everywhere. Its influence depends on geography, season and interactions with other climate patterns, including conditions in the Indian and Atlantic Oceans.
A Warmer World Raises the Stakes
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon, and there is currently no evidence that human-caused climate change is making such events more frequent or stronger.
But a warmer atmosphere and ocean can amplify some of their consequences, particularly heatwaves and episodes of intense rainfall.
The previous major El Niño, in 2023–24, contributed to exceptionally high global temperatures and coincided with 2024 becoming the warmest year on record.
Governments Urged to Prepare Now
The WMO is stepping up cooperation with national meteorological and hydrological services to strengthen forecasting, early warnings and preparedness.
The message is increasingly about acting before disasters strike: governments, farmers, health authorities, water managers and humanitarian organisations can use seasonal forecasts to prepare for changing risks.
With El Niño expected to intensify before the end of 2026, the coming months could prove critical.
The warning from the UN and WMO is clear: extreme weather risks are rising, and preparation cannot wait for the next disaster.
